Humanity has reached a demographic milestone, with the global population of senior citizens now surpassing that of young children for the first time. A report from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that individuals aged 65 and older now outnumber children aged five and under worldwide.
By 2025, the population aged 65 and over constituted 10.5% of the world's total population, a percentage that exceeded that of babies, toddlers, and preschoolers. This global tipping point occurred earlier than many demographers had anticipated, driven by declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy across the globe.
The United States currently ranks as the 48th oldest country, with 18.9% of its population in the 65 and older age group. This figure is projected to rise to 23.4% by 2060. However, due to faster aging in other nations, the U.S.'s global ranking is expected to fall to 110th by the same year.
Approximately 71% of the world's population resides in countries with fertility rates at or below the replacement level of roughly 2.1 births per woman. This trend is no longer confined to wealthier nations, as demographic aging is becoming a widespread phenomenon. Major global populations, including those in China, India, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam, are experiencing below-replacement-level birth rates.
Concurrently, the number of individuals aged 65 and over has seen significant growth, attributed to increased life expectancies and poverty reduction efforts. Projections estimate that the 65-and-over population will grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, accounting for 55% of all net global population growth during this period. The world's total population is anticipated to increase from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion by 2060, meaning one in every five people will be over 65.
This demographic shift could place substantial strain on welfare systems in numerous countries, as a shrinking working-age population supports a growing number of retirees. While this has historically been viewed as a primary concern for North America and Europe, the demographic changes are expected to be particularly pronounced in developing regions.
The projected increase in the 65+ population between 2025 and 2060 is 134.7%. In Africa, the continent with the youngest population, the senior population is expected to more than quadruple, with a projected increase of 315%, rising from 60 million to 249 million, surpassing Europe's 214 million seniors by 2060. Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to see a 158% increase. Asia will experience the largest numerical rise in older adults, with its 65 and over population forecast to increase from 487 million in 2025 to 1.24 billion by 2060.