Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is on track for a significant victory in the regional election held Sunday in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, according to exit polls released by public broadcasters. The AfD garnered at least 44 percent of the vote, a result that, if confirmed, would represent a historic win for the party.
The AfD's performance places it far ahead of the center-right CDU party, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which registered 18.5 percent in exit polls. While it is too early to determine if the AfD secured an absolute majority, the preliminary results signal a major shift in the regional political landscape. The party, which has consistently polled above 40 percent in Saxony-Anhalt for months, has openly expressed its ambition to form its first-ever state government.
Voters cast ballots between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. local time, with projections expected shortly after polls closed. Saxony-Anhalt is currently governed by the CDU in coalition with two smaller parties. The state's premier, Sven Schulze, had aimed to form another multi-party coalition to retain power.
Historically, mainstream German parties have adhered to a "firewall" policy, refusing cooperation or coalition with the AfD. The AfD's branch in Saxony-Anhalt has been classified as "right-wing extremist" by Germany's domestic intelligence agency. However, the AfD's top candidate in the state, Ulrich Siegmund, has indicated a willingness to govern alone if other parties refuse to partner with them, stating, "If no one wants to work with us, then we'll just have to do it alone."
Such a scenario could create significant political upheaval in Germany, a nation historically sensitive to the rise of extremist parties due to its past. A strong AfD showing also intensifies pressure on Chancellor Merz, whose platform includes economic revitalization and stricter immigration control, and whose party has been trailing the AfD in national polls.
Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of Kassel University noted that an AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt would embolden critics of Merz, but he does not foresee an immediate challenge to Merz's chancellorship due to a lack of strong alternative candidates. Siegmund has positioned the state election as a potential catalyst for the AfD's national ambitions, aiming for a nationwide victory in 2029.
The AfD's campaign platform features policies such as a "remigration and deportation offensive," a ban on LGBTQ pride flags in public schools, and an end to new wind farm construction. The party has also appealed to nostalgia for East Germany and addressed lingering resentments over economic disparities that persist decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The prospect of an AfD-led state government has raised concerns among mainstream parties and minority groups. Thousands of opponents of the AfD participated in a "festival of democracy" rally in Magdeburg the day before the vote. Experts from the German Economic Institute have warned that the AfD's immigration policies could negatively impact the state's economy, which faces an aging and shrinking population heavily reliant on foreign workers. Additionally, there are concerns that an AfD-controlled state security apparatus could compromise sensitive information to Russia, with Thuringia's interior minister Georg Maier suggesting the AfD is a key tool for Russian destabilization efforts.
Pre-election polling, such as a ZDF poll released days before the election, had placed the AfD at 41 percent, with the CDU at 23 percent. Other parties, including the SPD and the Greens, polled significantly lower, with some failing to clear the five-percent threshold for parliamentary representation. Die Linke, a far-left party, polled at 11.5 percent.
In the final days of the campaign, unsubstantiated claims of mail-in ballot fraud circulated on social media, which state authorities denied. Germany's parliamentary speaker, Julia Kloeckner, dismissed such speculation, suggesting that questioning election integrity without evidence aims to erode trust in democratic processes.