Motorists are bracing for rising petrol and diesel prices in the coming days, following a surge in fuel costs that began in late February amid Middle East tensions. While prices had seen a significant decrease in June, with diesel falling by 17 pence per litre, the biggest monthly drop on record, a new wave of US strikes over the weekend is poised to reverse this trend.
The recent strikes were a response to an Iranian attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical development is expected to lead to a U-turn in forecourt pricing. Drivers are currently paying an average of 151.0 pence per litre for petrol, a slight increase from a six-week low of 150.7 pence last Monday. Diesel prices have seen a more modest rise, inching up from 164.8 pence to 164.9 pence per litre.
Only Northern Ireland, the North East, and Yorkshire and the Humber currently remain below 150 pence per litre for petrol. The increase in pump prices is attributed to a 3 pence to 4 pence per litre rise in wholesale petrol costs since the last week of June, with diesel costs jumping by more than 6 pence per litre over the same period.
The renewed US-Iran conflict has directly impacted oil prices, contributing to the uptick in fuel costs. Diesel prices have also been affected by Russia's ban on fuel exports. The price volatility at the pumps has been significant since the start of the US-Iran conflict, with petrol and diesel reaching highs of 159.0 pence and 192.4 pence per litre respectively in April.
Earlier in the year, a pending ceasefire led to a price fall, but negotiations failed, causing prices to climb again to 159.7 pence in May. Throughout June and into early July, petrol prices dropped to 150.7 pence, while diesel fell from 184.4 pence in late May to its current 164.9 pence per litre.
Experts suggest that the savings drivers have recently enjoyed could disappear quickly. "Drivers embarking on their summer getaways may well see slightly higher forecourt prices again, with both petrol and diesel likely to go up a couple of pence a litre more in the next week or so," stated Simon Williams, fuel price expert at the RAC. He added that the future of pump prices in the UK is contingent on whether further attacks occur between the US and Iran.
This price volatility appears to be influencing consumer choices, with a notable increase in the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs). New government statistics indicate a 30.7 per cent rise in electricity consumption by road vehicles between 2024 and 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, electricity consumption by EVs increased by a further 28.1 per cent.
Car registration figures support the idea that higher fuel prices are driving demand for EVs. In June, new car registrations were up 11.4 per cent compared to the same month last year, marking the best June since 2019. Pure battery electric cars accounted for 30 per cent of sales in June, an increase from 24.8 per cent a year earlier. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) described these electric car sales figures as "significant."