Florida voters head to the polls Tuesday for the state's primary elections, the first since the legislature approved a new congressional map that could benefit Republicans. The redistricting, enacted earlier this year, is projected to make several Democratic-held seats more competitive, potentially bolstering the GOP's efforts to maintain control of the House in the upcoming November elections.
Analysts suggest the new map could lead to a reduction in Democratic-held districts in Florida to four following the November contests. Among the Democratic incumbents whose districts are considered vulnerable due to the redistricting are Reps. Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Kathy Castor.
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is running in the newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a majority-minority district. Her decision has created friction with some Black Democrats, who have been impacted by similar redistricting efforts in other states.
Rep. Jared Moskowitz will seek reelection in the redrawn 25th Congressional District. He faces a primary challenge from progressive candidate Oliver Larkin. This race is anticipated to be competitive in November, with Republicans viewing his seat as a potential pickup opportunity.
Rep. Kathy Castor's 14th Congressional District, which now splits Tampa and St. Petersburg, is still considered likely to remain with Democrats, given the current political climate not favoring Republicans.
On the Republican side, Democrats are targeting Rep. Cory Mills, who faces an ongoing House ethics investigation and a past restraining order. Mills has denied allegations made by a former girlfriend. Ahead of his primary in the 7th Congressional District, Mills received endorsements from fellow Florida Republicans Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos for his primary opponent, Ryan Elijah. Luna and Haridopolos stated, "We need leaders in Congress who serve with integrity, energy, and an unwavering commitment to the people who sent them there." Mills' campaign has also faced challenges in fundraising, though he retains the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.
Eyes are also on Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, who is the front-runner in the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary. With Gov. Ron DeSantis term-limited, Donalds has garnered significant Republican support, including backing from Trump and a $10 million donation from GOP donor Ken Griffin. If elected, Donalds would be the first Black governor in Florida and the seventh nationally. In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, former Republican Rep. David Jolly is the front-runner.