The notion of a widespread retail apocalypse in the United States is being challenged by the aggressive expansion of discount chains. Companies such as TJ Maxx, Ross Stores, Dollar General, and Aldi are significantly increasing their physical footprint, indicating consumer demand for value-priced goods remains robust. These retailers are capitalizing on economic uncertainty and a consumer desire to feel they are getting a bargain.
Neil Saunders, managing director of retail at GlobalData, described the idea of a retail apocalypse as "nonsense," noting that the retail sector, while facing challenges, is demonstrating resilience and growth, particularly in the discount segment. Elizabeth Lafontaine, director of research at Placer.ai, an analytics firm tracking retail foot traffic, corroborated this, stating that many retailers are expanding by entering new markets and focusing on value-oriented offerings.
Discount chains are performing well as consumers become more discerning with their spending. This trend is evident in the expansion plans of several major players. TJX Companies, parent to TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and others, plans to add at least 1,300 stores globally. TJ Maxx itself is opening five new U.S. locations by the end of August as part of this larger strategy. The appeal of off-price retailers like TJ Maxx lies in their ability to offer branded merchandise at discounted prices, with constantly changing inventory creating a "treasure hunt" experience that encourages repeat visits.
Ross Stores is also executing a significant expansion, having opened 45 new stores in June and July, with a total of approximately 110 new locations planned for the year. The company currently operates over 1,900 Ross Dress for Less stores and hundreds of dd's Discounts locations. Richard Lietz, Ross Stores' executive vice president of property development, stated that each new opening allows them to offer value to more customers and contribute positively to local communities.
Dollar General is planning to open 450 new stores in 2026, a slight decrease from its 575-store target for 2025, but still indicative of its growth strategy. Saunders attributes this success to a broader consumer shift towards value channels, a trend also benefiting Dollar Tree, Five Below, and Aldi. However, Saunders cautioned that simply offering low prices is not enough, citing Big Lots' bankruptcy in September 2024 as an example of a discounter that failed to meet evolving consumer needs.
The expansion is not limited to dollar stores and off-price apparel. Grocery chain Aldi plans to open more than 180 new stores by the end of 2026, aiming to reach nearly 2,800 locations in the U.S. By 2028, Aldi has a target of 3,200 U.S. stores. Nordstrom Rack is also opening new locations, and warehouse clubs like Costco and BJ's Wholesale Club are expanding their store count. Even traditional retailers are investing in physical stores; Target plans to open 30 new locations in 2026, Walmart intends to open 20 and remodel hundreds more, Barnes & Noble is targeting 60 new stores, and L.L.Bean has announced eight new locations. Starbucks expects to add 150 to 175 net new company-operated coffeehouses in the U.S. this year.
While thousands of store closures have been announced for 2025 and 2026, experts emphasize that these numbers do not tell the full story. Some retailers are downsizing due to struggling business models, while others are occupying the vacated spaces. Lafontaine noted that consumers continue to shop, but their purchasing habits have changed, making them more selective and prioritizing value. Retailers are increasingly focused on strategic location choices, targeting growing markets and demographics. Consumers are also engaging in more cross-shopping, comparing deals and assortments across multiple chains.
Despite the optimistic expansion by discounters, challenges remain. Lafontaine warned that economic pressures, such as rising fuel costs, could still impact consumer spending. The ongoing shift to e-commerce also presents a competitive landscape where retailers must manage both physical and digital channels. Furthermore, discounters cannot assume that price alone will guarantee success, as customers expect a combination of value, product, and a positive shopping experience. The current retail landscape suggests that while America is not running out of shoppers, it is running out of shoppers willing to pay full price without a compelling reason.