In the closing days of the 2026 midterm cycle, evidence suggests trends are shifting in favor of the Democrats, with polls, forecasts and prediction markets signaling potential gains for the party in both the House and Senate.
Cook Political Report has moved "a dozen more House races" toward Democrats, now projecting that the party could flip between 12 and 25 House seats, which would represent their largest majority since 2009. Political forecasting sites VoteHub and Decision Desk have updated their odds for a Democratic House takeover to 89% and 83% respectively. Prediction markets, including Kalshi, give Democrats a 93% chance to win the House and a 71% chance to secure the Senate.
While the Senate remains more contested, momentum appears to be with the Democrats. Polls in key Senate races indicate a shift to the left in several Republican-held seats. Races in Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Texas, and Ohio are increasingly seen as within reach for Democrats.
In Kansas, a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in over 90 years, a Democrat leads in four recent polls. While one poll showed a significant lead, its accuracy is under review, but other polls show the race within 6 points. In South Carolina and Iowa, Republican candidates hold leads under 3 points and 1 point, respectively, placing both races within statistical ties.
Democratic candidates are consistently leading in polls in Maine, Texas, Ohio, and Michigan. The race in Michigan has seen a notable widening, with the Democratic candidate leading by approximately 4 points. However, an endorsement of the Republican nominee by a prominent Democrat could influence outcomes among certain demographics.
North Carolina's Senate race is considered effectively decided for the Democratic candidate, who leads the Republican by nearly 11 points. These shifts suggest multiple potential paths for Democrats to gain control of the Senate.
The current political environment, including President Trump's approval rating below 40%, is seen as a significant factor. Polling indicates low approval for his handling of the economy and inflation. This challenging environment has led to signs of "panic" within Republican ranks, with the president rescheduling rallies in key states like Kansas and Iowa.
Douglas E. Schoen, a political consultant and pollster, and Carly Cooperman, CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research, authored an opinion piece stating that Democrats could be "riding a midterm wave" and that current numbers should "terrify the GOP."