Criminal justice reforms, including bail reforms, diversion programs, and alternatives to incarceration, have not achieved the success once promised, according to a new analysis of data from the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) program. The program, which diverts individuals away from jail and prosecution into case management and services, was intended to reduce recidivism and improve participants' lives.
Seattle's LEAD program, launched in 2011, was lauded for allegedly reducing arrests by 58% and felony charges by 39% among participants. Proponents also claimed significant improvements in employment and housing. However, a recent analysis by Eric Zimmerman, safety solutions policy director for the Washington Policy Center, found no clear difference in arrest rates between LEAD participants and a control group. Zimmerman's findings indicate that 91% of LEAD participants remained unemployed, contrary to the program's reported successes. For those entering the program without housing, only an estimated 19 individuals were housed in any given month over an 18-month period.
In contrast, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracking men after incarceration showed that within a week of release, 33.9% were employed, and by 10 weeks, 50.3% had jobs. Employment rates for this group remained between 50% and 58% for about 18 months post-release. The LEAD program reported only 9% employment among its participants during the same follow-up period.
Despite these data discrepancies, the LEAD program received significant acclaim and funding. LEAD architect Lisa Daugaard was awarded a $625,000 MacArthur Fellowship in 2019, citing the program's purported measurable outcomes. Santa Fe, New Mexico, which replicated the Seattle model in 2013, found that participants' average arrests increased by 41% in an evaluation of its pilot program.
The Obama administration promoted Seattle's LEAD program to representatives from over 30 cities in 2015. This led to its adoption in various locations, including Albany in 2016. New York state legislators cited Seattle's claimed 58% reduction in recidivism when proposing a statewide expansion, which was signed into law by then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2018. California lawmakers and New Jersey, which received $6 million in federal funding for LEAD pilots, also referenced the program's purported successes.
By 2021, LEAD programs had been established in 42 communities across 21 states, with nearly 80 more exploring similar initiatives. The analysis suggests that the underlying philosophy of these reforms, which aims to reduce incarceration, has been based on data that does not reflect the actual outcomes.
Zimmerman emphasized the need for jurisdictions to demand transparent data and independent audits for LEAD and similar programs. This includes reporting on mortality rates, drug abstinence, employment, income growth, and housing stability. The analysis urges that taxpayer funds should not support programs without verifiable evidence of their effectiveness, advocating for rigorous proof before further implementation.