Conservative pollster Matt Towery acknowledged former President Donald Trump's active role in campaigning for Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections but refrained from making a definitive prediction of GOP victories. Towery appeared on Fox News' "Hannity" to discuss recent polling, suggesting that Trump's involvement in rallies has been crucial for turnout in states like Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska.
"If the Republicans win Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, many of these states, him being there will be the margin of difference of that turnout that will win," Towery said. "I’m not going to tell you right now that the Republicans are winning these races." He added that while the GOP may have "dug themselves out from an incredible hole," many races are now within the margin of error.
Towery's remarks contrast with a New York Times-Siena University survey released Sunday, which indicated Democratic Senate candidates leading their Republican opponents in all seven swing states. Towery stated that his polling company, Insider Advantage, shows different results, with the Alaska Senate race tied and Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall leading his Democratic opponent in Kansas by one percentage point.
He also referenced polling from Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group, which shows the Texas race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico tied, and Republican Darline Graham leading Annie Andrews in South Carolina. Towery noted that midterm polling can be challenging, and cited a close 50-50 race in Georgia's gubernatorial contest as an example of the tight margins.
Towery's cautious outlook comes as many analysts predict the GOP could face challenges in retaining its majorities in the House and Senate.