California voters are demonstrating a strong early turnout, with over 6.4 million ballots already cast, surpassing the number of votes cast by Election Day eve in the 2022 midterm election by nearly one million.
According to the California Secretary of State's latest report, the current tally of over 6.4 million ballots exceeds the approximately 5.47 million recorded the day before the November 2022 election. This represents an increase of about 934,000 ballots, or 17.1%, even with the current figures collected two days prior to this year's election compared to one day prior in 2022.
Paul Mitchell, a pollster with Political Data Inc., indicated that his tracking shows an even larger increase, estimating that between 1.2 million and 1.3 million more ballots have been returned compared to the same point in the last midterm election. Mitchell cautioned that differences in reporting cutoffs between his figures and the secretary of state's totals can complicate direct comparisons.
Early voting in Los Angeles County is also ahead of its pace from 2022. Mitchell noted that the county has seen roughly 70,000 more ballots returned compared to the corresponding time in the previous midterm, with a participation rate among registered voters about 2 percentage points higher. He also observed a notable increase in Latino participation statewide among early voters.
Statewide, 6,107,024 mail-in ballots had been returned, alongside 299,137 in-person early votes, as of Sunday. This mail-in ballot count is lower than the approximately 8.1 million returned on the eve of the 2024 presidential election, though the reporting cutoff for the presidential election was one day later.
Geographically, Los Angeles County accounted for nearly 1.4 million ballots, representing over a fifth of the statewide total, with a participation rate of 23.45% among voters issued mail ballots. San Diego County reported 694,363 ballots (34.03% participation), Orange County had 600,796 ballots (31.16%), and Riverside County recorded 372,661 ballots (25.45%). Some of the smallest counties posted the highest participation rates, with Sierra County leading at 47.99%.
Of the mail ballots returned, over 3 million arrived via postal service, nearly 2.7 million were deposited in drop boxes, and approximately 396,000 were returned at designated drop-off locations or vote centers. The state reports that 99.07% of returned mail ballots have been accepted by counties.
In a separate legal development, the Trump administration made a filing with the Supreme Court requesting that California set aside approximately 20,000 mail-in ballots it alleges were sent to noncitizens. However, voters can still cast ballots in person or return completed mail ballots to official drop-off locations until 8 p.m. on Tuesday.