Andy Burnham is facing mounting pressure to call a General Election, as new polling data reveals significant public skepticism about his mandate to become Prime Minister without a contest. A Public First poll for Politico found that only 21 percent of voters believe Burnham should be installed immediately as Prime Minister. The same survey indicated that 54 percent of voters think he should first participate in a Labour leadership contest.
The desire for a leadership contest is even more pronounced among Labour voters, with 57 percent expressing the view that Burnham should seek his own mandate. Burnham is currently poised to become Prime Minister on July 17 through a Labour 'coronation,' shortly after winning a by-election in Makerfield made him eligible to stand for the party leadership.
Public Opinion on Leadership and General Election
A separate YouGov poll highlighted public support for a General Election, with 48 percent favoring one, compared to 36 percent against. This survey also revealed low public confidence in Burnham's potential performance as Prime Minister, with only 18 percent believing he will be a good leader, while 20 percent anticipate an average performance and 26 percent predict a poor or terrible outcome.
These developments follow Sir Keir's decision to trigger a leadership contest by announcing his resignation as party leader, responding to pressure from Labour MPs. Nominations for the leadership role are scheduled to open on July 9 and close a week later, requiring candidates to secure the support of at least 80 MPs.
Despite the potential for a contest, Burnham appears likely to be the sole candidate, which would clear the path for him to become Prime Minister on July 17. Former health secretary Wes Streeting has shifted his stance to support Burnham, reversing his earlier assertion that a contest was essential. Cabinet Office minister Darren Jones formally withdrew his candidacy on Wednesday, and while former special forces officer Al Carns has indicated he is still considering his options, he is not believed to have sufficient backing. Some hard-left MPs have called for a contest but have yet to rally behind a credible candidate.
Mandate and Historical Precedents
Nigel Farage has called for an immediate General Election, stating it is "ridiculous to pretend that Andy Burnham has any kind of meaningful mandate to lead the country." He added, "If Labour thinks it can shove another professional politician into No 10, it has another think coming."
If Burnham enters Number 10 without a contest, he would hold the weakest mandate of any Prime Minister in modern history. His victory in the Makerfield by-election, with 24,927 votes, secured a 55 percent share of the vote in a traditionally Labour seat. However, these votes represent only 0.05 percent of the UK electorate. Burnham also did not stand on Labour's manifesto in the last general election and would be the first Prime Minister in recent times not to have previously served as leader of the opposition or in one of the three great offices of state prior to entering Number 10.
Burnham has publicly downplayed the likelihood of an early General Election, reportedly concerned about alienating Labour MPs who are vulnerable in their seats. However, some close to him privately acknowledge that he might consider an early election to establish his own mandate if polling suggests favorable conditions in the coming months.