The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are scheduled to face off on Thursday, with starting pitchers Cam Schlitter and Connelly Early set to renew a postseason rivalry. This marks a significant matchup between two American League East teams separated by 15.5 games in the standings.
Schlitter, a 25-year-old native of Massachusetts, has emerged as a strong contender for the AL Cy Young award. In his most recent start against Cincinnati, he recorded 13 strikeouts over six shutout innings, surpassing his previous career high. Heading into his 17th start of the season, Schlitter is favored at +105 for the award on FanDuel. His performance against the Red Sox this season includes a 1.32 earned run average over 13 2/3 innings in two starts.
The Yankees are listed as road favorites, with odds as low as -141 at DraftKings, and the over/under for the game total is set at 8 runs.
Connelly Early, who faced Schlitter in Game 3 of last year's AL Wild Card series, has settled into the Red Sox rotation as a reliable backend starter. While not considered an ace, Early has managed to allow more than three earned runs in only three of his 15 starts this season. He is coming off a win against Seattle, where he allowed two hits and struck out seven batters in six innings.
The Red Sox have struggled significantly at home, holding an MLB-worst 12-25 record at Fenway Park. Their offense ranks tied for second-to-last in weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Despite these offensive struggles, the Red Sox bullpen has been a bright spot, ranking third overall in ERA at 3.25. The Yankees' bullpen is also strong, ranking fourth at 3.35.
Without key player Aaron Judge, the Yankees' offense has seen a decline, dropping from second overall in wRC+ to 15th, although players like Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt, and Cody Bellinger have contributed.
Given the pitching matchups and offensive considerations for both teams, the prediction for this game is an under on the 8-run total.