The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to defeat the Atlanta Falcons in their Week 1 matchup, with betting lines shifting in favor of Pittsburgh, largely due to concerns surrounding Falcons quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Initially facing a 3.5-point spread, the Steelers have become favored by higher margins following news of Tagovailoa's oblique injury.
Analysts point to a lack of confidence in Tagovailoa's ability to lead the Falcons offense effectively. The quarterback, a former Dolphins player, is expected to start after a competition with Michael Penix Jr., whose season was cut short by a torn ACL. Tagovailoa's performance in training camp and previous seasons with Miami has drawn criticism, and he is set to begin the season on the road against a strong Steelers defense.
Despite the Falcons' offensive weapons like Bijan Robinson and Drake London, the Steelers defense is expected to focus on stopping the run, while not fearing London's ability to exploit coverage due to perceived weaknesses in Tagovailoa's play. Tagovailoa's documented struggles on the road during his time with Miami are also a factor, with former Steelers coach Mike Tomlin having previously benched him in a game in Pittsburgh last season.
On the other side, the Steelers' offense will be under the direction of new offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy. While not the same dynamic as his previous partnership with Aaron Rodgers, McCarthy is known for orchestrating effective offenses that highlight player strengths. The Steelers boast playmakers such as receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and DK Metcalf, complemented by a running back duo of Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren. The Falcons' defense, while solid, is not considered imposing and will be without pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. This is expected to give Rodgers, who is not highly mobile, enough time in the pocket to avoid pressure.
The prediction suggests a low-scoring game where Pittsburgh scores enough to secure a victory by approximately a touchdown, potentially sparking questions about when Michael Penix Jr. will be healthy enough to take over as the Falcons' starting quarterback. Matt Ehalt, a sports betting editor and producer for the New York Post, has a history of success in NFL wagers and NCAA brackets, and has been picking against the spread since his childhood.