Tuesday evening's U.S. Open quarterfinal match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz is being framed as more than just a typical tournament round. Alcaraz, the heavy favorite to defend his title, is considered the sport's biggest star, while Shelton will have strong home crowd support as he attempts a significant upset.
Alcaraz is currently a -420 favorite to win the match at FanDuel Sportsbook. The 23-year-old Spaniard is ranked World No. 2 and has secured seven Grand Slam titles, including two U.S. Opens. Despite his dominant record, questions had lingered about his readiness for the tournament due to a 18-week layoff caused by a wrist injury.
However, Alcaraz has appeared to overcome any rust, reaching the quarterfinals without significant struggle, dropping only one set against opponents Roman Safiullin, Jaime Faria, Yibing Wu, and Tommy Paul. This relatively less challenging path to the quarterfinals, combined with his strong performance, has solidified his favored status.
Shelton's journey to this stage has also been noteworthy. While his defeated opponents were not ranked within the top 45, overcoming players like Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov, and Stefanos Tsitsipas represents a considerable achievement. Three of these players—Hurkacz, Shapovalov, and Tsitsipas—have previously been ranked in the top 10. Griekspoor had recently defeated Alexander Zverev.
Despite Shelton's 0-3 career record against Alcaraz, including winning only one set, this match presents what is described as his best opportunity for an upset. Factors contributing to this potential include Shelton's current strong form, the advantage of playing in front of a supportive home crowd, and Alcaraz's recent return from a lengthy injury absence.
Ben Shelton is positioned as a potential value bet, with his moneyline considered within a range for wagering. The betting prediction suggests Shelton on the moneyline at +320 via FanDuel.