Senegal and Iraq will face each other on Friday in a World Cup qualifier where only a victory offers a chance at advancing to the knockout stages. A loss or draw for either team would result in elimination from the tournament.
While a win for Iraq, known as Usood al-Rafidayn, could potentially keep their hopes alive, it would require a specific sequence of other match results. Senegal's path to advancement, while still challenging, is described as less complicated.
Both teams found themselves in a difficult Group I, contending with strong opponents like France and Norway, who feature top global talents Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland, respectively. Iraq was pinned deep by France, forcing errors, while Norway utilized Haaland in central areas to exploit defensive weaknesses.
Despite being in their current position, Senegal, referred to as Les Lions de la Teranga, is considered to have underachieved given the presence of globally respected players such as Sadio Mané, Kalidou Koulibaly, Ismaila Sarr, and Nicolas Jackson. The team's goal differential is three goals worse than Iraq's, and both teams have FotMob ratings in the bottom six of the 48-team field.
In their upcoming match, oddsmakers favor Senegal, listing them as -180 favorites on the three-way moneyline, with Iraq as long as 12/1 underdogs. Senegal is expected to control possession, utilizing wide attacks led by Mané and Sarr. Iraq is anticipated to adopt a deep, compact defensive strategy, relying on counterattacks initiated by Zidane Iqbal and finished by Ali Al-Hamadi.
Iraq's previous matches have seen them concede goals due to giveaways within their own penalty area, notably against Haaland and Mbappé, suggesting potential defensive vulnerabilities. Senegal, on the other hand, is seen as having a significant motivation to prove themselves after competitive performances against France and Norway.
One projection suggests Senegal scoring over 2.5 goals in the match.