Scotland's prospects of advancing to the World Cup knockout stages are exceedingly slim, with the team holding only a 0.1% chance, according to Opta. Manager Steve Clarke's squad currently sits in 10th place among third-placed teams, a position that necessitates a dramatic shift in numerous match outcomes and goal differences to secure passage.
The team's hopes hinge on a complex series of results. Scotland requires Algeria and Croatia to lose their upcoming matches by specific margins. Additionally, Ghana must defeat Croatia by at least three goals, and Uzbekistan needs to secure a win or a draw against the Democratic Republic of Congo. These combined outcomes are crucial for Scotland to potentially leapfrog other nations in the third-place rankings.
The expanded 48-team World Cup format, which allows the top eight third-placed teams to advance alongside the top two from each group, has created these intricate qualification scenarios. This format, similar to the one used in the European Championships since 2016, aims to increase the number of teams participating in the knockout rounds.
Should Scotland improbably advance, potential opponents in the last 32 include the winners of Groups A, E, and I. Mexico has already secured the top spot in Group A. This path could also lead to a matchup with England in the last 16, provided England wins their group and progresses.
England, currently leading Group L, is on track to win their group if they defeat Panama and maintain their goal difference advantage. If they finish first, their last-32 opponent is likely to be Senegal, with a roughly 50% probability. Other possibilities include DR Congo or, less likely, Algeria. If England finishes second, they would face the runner-up of Group K, currently Portugal.
Looking further ahead, a victory for England in the round of 32 could set up a clash with the winner of Mexico vs. Ecuador or Scotland. A potential quarter-final could see them face Brazil, with Argentina or Portugal looming in the semi-finals.
Among the tournament favorites, France is listed with the highest probability of winning the World Cup at 16.1%, followed by Argentina at 15.7%. Spain is given a 13.2% chance, with England at 8.7%. Other top contenders include Brazil, Portugal, Netherlands, and Germany.