Aryna Sabalenka returns to the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center as the defending US Open champion and the world's top-ranked player, facing the dual challenge of retaining her title and her No. 1 ranking. Last year, Sabalenka secured her New York crown in a challenging two-set match against Amanda Anisimova, preventing a calendar year without a Grand Slam title. Now, she aims to replicate that success while fending off close rivals.
Her grip on the top spot is precarious, with Elena Rybakina applying significant pressure. Beyond Rybakina, home favorites Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula are also seen as threats, with Gauff having previously defeated Sabalenka in two Grand Slam finals, including the 2022 US Open.
Earlier in the season, Sabalenka achieved a significant milestone by winning the Sunshine Double—the Indian Wells and Miami Open tournaments consecutively. However, her form has shown fluctuations since then. A loss to Hailey Baptiste in the Rome quarterfinals ended a 15-match winning streak and her remarkable record of 19 consecutive tie-break victories. She then experienced a collapse in the French Open quarterfinals against Diana Schnaider, losing the final set after holding a significant lead. Wimbledon saw her earliest Grand Slam exit since 2022, falling to Naomi Osaka in the fourth round.
When Sabalenka is at her best, her aggressive style and powerful serves overwhelm opponents. However, she has recently struggled to adapt her game plan mid-match, leading to an increase in unforced errors when facing difficulties. Her record against top-40 players has also been inconsistent since April, with more losses than wins against that group.
Sources indicate no public explanations such as injuries or personal disruptions for this shift in performance. Instead, her level has dipped amidst the demanding tour schedule. In response, Sabalenka has re-hired the sports psychologist she previously dismissed in 2022. She previously worked with biomechanics specialist Gavin MacMillan, who aided in her 2023 Australian Open victory.
"It’s good to have someone back who knows you well, who can just say a couple things that are going to completely flip the page," Sabalenka told TIME this month, acknowledging the need for a renewed approach.
Speculation has arisen that efforts to maintain composure on court may have diluted the aggressive "tiger power" that defines her game. Sabalenka, who sports a tiger tattoo and incorporates its imagery into her gear, dismissed this notion when asked about her Wimbledon defeat. However, her visible frustration during a match against Bejlek has fueled concerns about her mental state.
Sabalenka has held the No. 1 ranking for 96 consecutive weeks, enjoying significant endorsement deals with brands like Gucci and Nike, and custom tennis equipment. Her association with New York jeweler Material Good, which has seen her wear jewelry valued at over £160,000 at Grand Slams, highlights her evolving public image. However, maintaining such a profile becomes more challenging at world No. 7.
The US Open, known for its vibrant atmosphere and celebrity draw, provides a familiar stage for Sabalenka. Her history of engaging with the New York crowd, including a past offer to buy spectators drinks, suggests she can harness the energy of the event. As the defending champion, she is expected to have crowd support, particularly until she faces local competitors.
Despite recent struggles, Sabalenka's talent remains undisputed. The current dip in form is anticipated to be temporary, with expectations that she will contend for future Grand Slam titles, potentially culminating in a strong performance at this year's US Open.