The Baltimore Ravens are facing an unprecedented quarterback crisis heading into their Week 9 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. With starting quarterback Lamar Jackson on injured reserve after thumb surgery, backup Tyler Huntley also sidelined with a season-ending turf toe injury, and third-stringer Skylar Thompson already on IR, the Ravens are set to start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano under center on a short week.
This dire situation has dramatically shifted the betting lines for Thursday Night Football. Baltimore, which initially opened as a field-goal favorite, is now a significant home underdog, with the Jaguars favored by 9.5 points across multiple sportsbooks. Fagnano, who entered the game in relief against the Buffalo Bills, completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards, threw an interception, and lost a fumble. His ankle injury adds another layer of concern for the Ravens.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars arrive in Baltimore with considerable momentum. They stand at 5-2, leading the AFC South with the NFL’s best point differential at +85. Their dominant 42-7 victory over the Indianapolis Colts last week showcased an offense led by Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown 17 touchdowns against just four interceptions. The Jaguars' defense has also been a formidable unit.
Given the Ravens' offensive struggles and Fagnano's inexperience, several sports betting analysts are advising caution for Baltimore's offensive props. Some suggest focusing on lower numbers for Fagnano's passing yards and higher numbers for his rushing attempts, acknowledging that the Ravens will likely lean heavily on the run to shorten the game and protect their rookie quarterback.
Conversely, Trevor Lawrence is seen as a prime candidate for higher passing yards and touchdowns, especially with the potential absence of Ravens cornerback Nate Wiggins due to a concussion. However, some analysts also point to a contrarian angle, suggesting a lower total for Lawrence's passing attempts if the Jaguars establish a commanding lead early, allowing them to run the ball in the second half.
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Despite the Jaguars' advantages, some analysts believe the large point spread might be an overreaction. They point to the inherent sloppiness of Thursday night games and the Ravens' history of keeping games close, especially against Jacksonville, having won three of the last five meetings. The Ravens' defense, known for its physicality, could also make it difficult for the Jaguars to achieve a blowout victory. Some are picking the Ravens to cover the +9.5 spread, while others are betting the under on the total of 42.5, anticipating a low-scoring, run-heavy affair. The Jaguars, however, are favored to win outright, with their moneyline set at -476, while the Ravens are at +385.