The Open Championship, golf's oldest major, is set to be contested at the links course of Royal Birkdale, a venue known for its susceptibility to the elements and unpredictable outcomes. Historically, the tournament has seen a significant number of surprise champions, with six of the last 16 winners starting at odds of 80/1 or longer, including Brian Harman who won at 125/1 in 2023.
This year's championship will be held at Royal Birkdale in Merseyside, a course particularly exposed to coastal winds. While conditions can shift rapidly, the early forecast suggests relatively calm weather with expected gusts of up to 15 mph. The last time Royal Birkdale hosted the event in 2017, Jordan Spieth won with a score of 12-under par, a leaderboard that also featured notable surprise performances.
Among the leading contenders, Cameron Young is listed at 33/1. Despite a recent slump after a strong start to the season, Young has a runner-up finish and a T8 in four previous Open Championship appearances. Viktor Hovland, also at 34/1, enters the tournament on the back of a win at the Travelers Championship in late June and a T13 finish at the Scottish Open. Hovland has achieved a top-13 finish in three of his five Open Championship starts.
In the sleeper category, Min Woo Lee is available at 55/1. While Lee has a history of missing cuts at majors, his recent performance includes a second-place finish at the Scottish Open. Lee's overall record includes wins globally and consistent presence on leaderboards, making his current odds attractive given his form and proximity to Royal Birkdale's conditions.
For those seeking a long-shot bet, Matthew Southgate is priced at 2,500/1. Southgate is considered a specialist in links golf, with three top-25 finishes in six Open Championship appearances, including a T6 at Royal Birkdale in 2017. He enters the week with momentum, having qualified for the tournament on Monday and recently won a Challenger Tour event. Odds for a top-10 finish for Southgate are 62/1, and for a top-20 finish, they are 26/1.