Patrick Mahomes, the three-time Super Bowl winner and two-time NFL MVP, is facing predictions of a regression in the 2026 season following a torn ACL and LCL suffered on December 14. Despite being a favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year, analysts express skepticism about his ability to perform at his usual elite level.
Mahomes is currently favored at +185 to win Comeback Player of the Year. However, the narrative driving this award may overshadow performance considerations. Factors contributing to concerns about his upcoming season include the strength of the Kansas City Chiefs' division and perceived weaknesses in the team's overall talent.
The Chiefs face a challenging schedule, including tough divisional opponents like the Chargers and Broncos, as well as matchups against the Bills, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. The defensive fronts of these teams raise questions about whether Mahomes can meet expectations.
Kansas City's over/under for wins is set at 10.5. While the team might exceed this total, the brutality of their division and potential limitations around Mahomes lead to doubts about his season-long passing statistics.
Mahomes recorded career highs in rushing yards (422) and touchdowns (five) in 14 games played during the season prior to his injury. This dual-threat performance, however, came at the expense of his health.
Analysts suggest that Mahomes may not fully trust his receiving options, citing an aging Travis Kelce, an ineffective Xavier Worthy, and an average Rashee Rice. This potential lack of confidence in his targets could influence play-calling.
With the team acquiring running back Kenneth Walker, it is anticipated that he will receive a significant workload throughout the season. This could shift the offensive focus away from Mahomes's passing game.
Based on these factors, predictions suggest betting under Mahomes's projected season totals. Specifically, bets on him going under 25.5 total passing touchdowns (-115) and under 3,649.5 passing yards (-110) are recommended.