NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Scoring Surge, Major Upsets Impact Futures

The opening week of the NFL season saw offenses come out firing, leading to a surge in scoring and surprising outcomes that impacted betting trends and futures markets.

Across the league's 16 games, a total of 791 points were scored, matching 2012 for the highest Week 1 total since the AFL-NFL merger. Eleven teams surpassed the 30-point mark, contributing to an overall record where 'Over' bets finished 9-6-1. The average points per game stood at 49.4, presenting an early challenge for oddsmakers to determine if this offensive explosion is a sustained trend or a Week 1 anomaly.

A significant upset saw the Los Angeles Chargers, heavy favorites at -9.5 against the Arizona Cardinals, lose 26-14 at home. This result eliminated a substantial portion of participants from Survivor pools, with the Circa Survivor contest alone reporting over 7,500 entries — approximately 30% of its field — wiped out by the Chargers' defeat. The outcome marked a stark reality check for the Chargers, who failed to lead at any point during the game.

The futures market for the Super Bowl also experienced shifts after Week 1 results. The San Francisco 49ers saw their odds shorten from 17/1 to 14/1 following a decisive victory over the Los Angeles Rams. Despite the Rams' loss, they remain the favorites to win the Super Bowl, though their odds drifted from +500 to +650. The New York Giants also saw their Super Bowl odds improve from 66/1 to 50/1 after an upset win against the Dallas Cowboys.

In the Most Valuable Player (MVP) market, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams made a notable ascent. Williams contributed four touchdowns, two passing and two rushing, in Chicago's 59-point performance against the Carolina Panthers. He completed 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards and added 65 rushing yards. DraftKings Sportsbook adjusted his MVP odds from 12/1 pre-season to +700, placing him third on their board behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.