The NFL offseason has seen numerous contract extensions and signings as teams prepare for the upcoming season. An analysis of these moves highlights both potentially shrewd investments and considerable risks for various franchises.
Risky Contracts
Several high-profile contracts are being scrutinized for their potential to underdeliver. The Dolphins' decision to sign quarterback Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million deal, with $45 million guaranteed, is raising eyebrows. Despite familiarity with the coaching staff, Willis has only six pro starts and struggled in his initial stint as a starting quarterback for the Tennessee Titans. The hefty contract and associated expectations could create immediate pressure in a rebuilding environment.
Another significant deal under the microscope is the four-year, $114 million contract with $84 million guaranteed for receiver Alec Pierce of the Indianapolis Colts. Pierce is transitioning to the WR1 role after averaging over 20 yards per catch in recent seasons. However, he faces the challenge of consistently performing against defenses specifically designed to neutralize his deep-threat ability, potentially leading to buyer's remorse for the Colts if he doesn't dominate.
The Carolina Panthers have committed $42 million over three years, with $25 million guaranteed, to linebacker Shaq Lloyd. Lloyd is coming off a breakout Pro Bowl season in 2025, where he recorded five interceptions and 81 tackles, but his tenure with the Jaguars was marked by inconsistency, including being benched multiple times. The Panthers are betting that a new scheme will unlock his consistent play, but he must replicate his recent success to justify the contract.
In Washington, the Commanders signed Odafe Oweh to a four-year, $96 million deal with $68 million guaranteed. Oweh, a player with a history of inconsistent pass-rushing production, has recorded 30.5 sacks over five seasons. While he showed improvement in the latter half of last season, his development as a pass rusher has been gradual, and the Commanders are relying on a new defensive scheme to maximize his potential.
The Tennessee Titans' secondary has been bolstered by the signing of cornerback L'Jarius Taylor to a three-year, $58 million contract with $42 million guaranteed. Taylor enjoyed a strong season as a slot corner for the Saints and is expected to assume the CB1 role in Tennessee, primarily covering opposing top receivers. His performance against the division's talented pass-catchers will quickly determine if he is worth his new $20 million per year valuation.
Sound Investments
On the other hand, some offseason acquisitions are being praised as potentially the best value. The Minnesota Vikings secured quarterback Kyler Murray on a one-year, $1.3 million deal with no guaranteed money. Despite concerns about his previous tenure with the Cardinals, Murray, a former Offensive Rookie of the Year and two-time Pro Bowler, represents the most talented quarterback to work with head coach Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota. He has an opportunity to revive his career and lead a dynamic offense.
The Philadelphia Eagles added cornerback Woolen to their defensive backfield on a one-year, $12 million contract with $12 million guaranteed. Woolen's size, length, and speed are seen as a perfect fit for the Eagles' defensive scheme, making him a difficult matchup for opposing receivers and a potentially significant bargain.
The Houston Texans made a strategic move by signing interior offensive lineman Tytus Smith to a two-year, $20 million deal with $13.5 million guaranteed. Smith is expected to provide crucial protection for quarterback C.J. Stroud and improve the Texans' run game. If he can stay healthy, his addition could stabilize an offense that has held back the team's defensive strengths.
In Kansas City, the Chiefs signed running back Kenneth Walker III to a three-year, $43.05 million contract with $28.7 million guaranteed. Walker's explosive running ability is expected to complement Patrick Mahomes and open up the Chiefs' offense, potentially relieving pressure on the passing game and forcing defenses to respect the run. His impact could help re-establish the value of lead running backs around the league.
Lastly, the Los Angeles Chargers fortified their offensive line with the acquisition of center Corey Biadasz on a three-year, $30 million contract with $20 million guaranteed. Biadasz brings physicality and experience to an offensive line that struggled last season. His presence is intended to improve protection for quarterback Justin Herbert and enhance the team's overall competitiveness.