New York Mets pitcher Freddy Peralta has struggled significantly since his acquisition in January, falling short of expectations as a frontline ace. The two-time All-Star has encountered issues with falling behind in counts, poor pitch sequencing, and a notable decrease in his swing-and-miss percentage. His current strikeout rate is on pace to be the lowest of his nine-year career, with an uptick in opposing batting average across all six of his pitches.
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Peralta's recent performance includes a difficult outing against his former team, the Milwaukee Brewers, where he allowed seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. This start marked the first time he completed five innings in his last four appearances. With his pending unrestricted free agent status and the Mets' current season trajectory, a change of environment could be beneficial for both the pitcher and the team as they look towards the future.
He is set to face the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 5.01 earned run average, ranking fourth among qualified starters. The Dodgers, who are strong contenders for the postseason, lead Major League Baseball in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and boast a run differential of plus-160. Peralta's career record against the Dodgers shows a 3.29 ERA over 41 innings, but his current high walk rate is a concern against a Dodgers lineup that ranks third in baseball for walk rate.
Furthermore, Peralta's tendency to throw his fastball more than 50 percent of the time could be exploited by the Dodgers, as nine of their hitters have demonstrated positive run value against the pitch, according to Statcast data. A prediction suggests Peralta will allow over 2.5 earned runs in his upcoming start.