Prediction markets suggest the Los Angeles Dodgers are the leading contenders to acquire Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal if he is traded, with odds indicating a significant chance of a deal occurring before the August 3 trade deadline. Kalshi, a prediction market exchange, places the Dodgers at a 30 percent chance of landing Skubal, surpassing the Tigers' odds of 20 percent. A separate market also shows a 56 percent chance that Skubal will be traded, making him the second most likely player to be dealt after Luis Arraez.
Despite these odds, Jon Heyman reported that a trade before the deadline is unlikely, though keeping Skubal beyond this season appears improbable for Detroit. The Tigers, currently 6.5 games behind the American League Central leaders, are on the fringes of the playoff race. Their performance leading up to the deadline could influence Skubal's future with the team. A closing gap in the standings might increase the likelihood of Skubal remaining in Detroit, while further divergence could make a trade more probable.
The prediction markets show a wide range of interest from other teams, with the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves each at 14 percent, followed by the Tampa Bay Rays (13 percent) and Philadelphia Phillies (12 percent). Historically, teams like the New York Yankees might have been strong suitors for a pitcher of Skubal's caliber, but current odds place them at 8 percent, indicating they are not expected to be in the running, partly due to their existing rotation.
The prediction market for Skubal's next team has a resolution date of March 25, 2027, which would encompass future offseasons. However, the market is still in its early stages, with approximately $85,000 in trading volume as of July 22, suggesting that odds could fluctuate significantly. The market assessing the probability of Skubal being traded at all has seen around $66,256 in volume.