The 2026 college football season projects a wide-open Big 12 conference race following significant conference realignment. While Texas Tech has emerged as an early favorite, Kansas State, with a manageable schedule and returning quarterback Avery Johnson, is positioned as the best bet to win the conference at 16/1 odds.
Texas Tech began the season as the odds-on favorite, priced at -105 to win the Big 12. The Red Raiders were a strong team in 2025, reaching the College Football Playoff semifinals before falling to Oregon in the Orange Bowl. However, a significant question mark surrounds their quarterback situation. Brandon Sorsby, recruited by head coach Joey McGuire, has been disqualified due to a gambling scandal, leaving Will Hammond, who missed most of last season with a torn ACL, as the likely starter. This uncertainty, coupled with their odds-on favorite status in a notoriously unpredictable conference, raises concerns for bettors.
Kansas State's Path to the Title
Kansas State's betting odds stand at 16/1, largely contingent on the development of quarterback Avery Johnson and the fit of former signal-caller Collin Klein as head coach. The Wildcats have benefited from a favorable schedule, avoiding matchups against Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah during the regular season. They are also scheduled to host Houston and Arizona. According to SP+, Kansas State is projected to be favored in all but one regular-season game, a road contest against TCU.
The team's schedule, combined with incoming transfers addressing key roster needs, provides a strong platform for Johnson and Klein to succeed. The perceived frontrunners in the conference also face their own challenges, further bolstering Kansas State's prospects.
Long Shot Contenders
Beyond the top contenders, Oklahoma State presents an intriguing long-shot option at 29/1 odds. Following a difficult 2025 season that led to the departure of longtime head coach Mike Gundy, the program has brought in Eric Morris as head coach. Morris previously transformed North Texas into a high-powered offensive unit in 2025, averaging 512.4 yards and 44.6 points per game.
Morris is bringing several key offensive players with him from North Texas, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins, wide receivers Wyatt Young and Miles Coleman, and several offensive linemen. Mestemaker, in his freshman season at North Texas, threw for 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns. The coaching change and influx of talent offer potential for a rapid turnaround in Stillwater.