France enters the Round of 16 of the World Cup as the favorite to win the tournament, set to face Paraguay. The French team advanced after a 3-0 victory over Sweden, creating numerous scoring opportunities and generating 3.24 expected goals (xG).
Kylian Mbappé has been a key figure for France, currently leading the tournament in goals. His performance against Sweden marked his fourth multi-goal game in a World Cup knockout match, a record in tournament history. France has also established a new all-time tournament record by scoring at least three goals in each of their last five World Cup matches.
As they prepare to play Paraguay, France is heavily favored on the three-way moneyline. Paraguay, conversely, is considered the biggest longshot in the Round of 16. This underdog status comes after they secured a surprising victory over Germany in a penalty shootout, following a 1-1 draw in regulation. Despite Germany's significant possession advantage and higher xG, Paraguay's resilience secured their advancement.
However, facing France presents a considerably greater challenge. The French offensive capabilities are highlighted by players like Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise, and Bradley Barcola, who are noted for their rapid transitions, precise passing, and clinical finishing. This attacking prowess, combined with Didier Deschamps' pragmatic defensive approach, allows France to control games and capitalize on counterattacking opportunities.
Paraguay's offensive strategy, characterized by deep defending and low possession, has yielded limited success. With only eight shots on target through their first four matches and three goals from 1.5 xG, their inefficiency is expected to be tested against a French defense that recently achieved a clean sheet against a Swedish team that had scored in every prior group match. Paraguay's possession share ranks second-to-last in the tournament. France's tactical discipline is expected to prevent the match from devolving into the kind of randomness that benefited Paraguay against Germany, limiting their opportunities through low-volume counterattacks.
France has a history of reaching the final, having made appearances in 2018 and 2022. The team is conditioned to advance in knockout stages, particularly with Mbappé in his current scoring form. A betting prediction suggests pairing another goal from Mbappé with France scoring over 2.5 goals in the match. Matias Galarza of Paraguay celebrates during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round Of 32 match between Germany and Paraguay.