Florida State's football program, under head coach Mike Norvell, faces heightened expectations and scrutiny as the 2026 season approaches. After a College Football Playoff snub in 2023, the team's performance declined, finishing 5-7 in 2025 despite an opening upset victory over Alabama. This downturn followed a strong two-year stretch from 2022-23 where the Seminoles won 23 games, contrasting sharply with the seven wins from 2024-25. Norvell's job security is reportedly on the line, with a winning season potentially not being enough to satisfy program expectations.
The Seminoles open their 2026 campaign at home against New Mexico State. Florida State is a significant favorite in the matchup, but the focus is on whether they can cover the 31.5-point spread. The team's subsequent schedule includes a Week 1 game against SMU and a Week 2 rematch with Alabama, amplifying the importance of a strong start.
New Mexico State, projected by Bill Connelly's SP+ model to be the 125th-best team in the FBS, is not expected to compete for wins. However, the Aggies are predicted to be a tough opponent against larger teams due to their strategy of forcing turnovers and seeking quick scores. In 2025, New Mexico State averaged the seventh-most takeaways per game. This approach could pose a challenge for Florida State's quarterback Ashton Daniels, who has thrown 22 interceptions over his last three seasons.
Florida State's coaching staff may also be hesitant to run up the score or risk injuries against a significantly weaker opponent, given the critical games against SMU and Alabama looming. The betting prediction favors New Mexico State to cover the 31.5-point spread, making them the "Ugly Underdog" pick for the opening week.