An analysis of expected goals (xG) data in the Premier League is offering a clearer picture of team performance beyond the early season standings. Expected goals measure the dominance of teams in games based on the quality and quantity of shots taken and faced, providing an indicator of future success.
While statistics from the initial games should be viewed with caution due to small sample sizes and varied fixture difficulties, the underlying xG data suggests certain trends. Champions Arsenal, despite a recent significant defeat, lead in overall game dominance based on xG difference. Manchester City closely follows, with an impressive start attributed to strong performance metrics, as does the unbeaten Brentford. Manchester United, despite a seemingly inconsistent start, ranks highly in xG difference, suggesting better underlying performance than their league position might indicate. Nottingham Forest and AFC Bournemouth are also noted as teams performing better than their early table placement implies.
Conversely, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, and Newcastle United have shown the least impressive overall performances according to xG. The article suggests Newcastle's position in the top half may be a surprise given their xG metrics. While it is still early in the campaign, these teams have room for improvement, a factor that benefited Aston Villa last season after a slow start. Promoted teams such as Hull and Ipswich are also reported to be making strong starts that could challenge established clubs.
Examining attacking metrics, Brighton & Hove Albion boast the best attack based on xG, followed by Manchester City, Brentford, and Manchester United. Eight teams have a higher xG than Arsenal, and Liverpool and Chelsea are noted to be in the mid-table for attacking xG. Brighton has been particularly clinical, scoring 15 non-penalty goals from an xG of 10.7. Newcastle United, despite having the lowest xG in the league so far, have been notably effective, scoring nine goals from an xG of 4.5. This suggests a reliance on sharp finishing that may need to be addressed as the season progresses.
In contrast, Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest, and Tottenham Hotspur have scored three goals fewer than expected based on their chances, raising questions about their finishing ability or the potential for their luck in front of goal to change.
Defensively, Arsenal continues to maintain the league's strongest backline, even accounting for their loss to Brighton. Nottingham Forest and Liverpool are also highlighted for their defensive solidity under their respective head coaches. Crystal Palace, Fulham, and Chelsea are noted as needing defensive improvements, having been too open at the back. Brighton's attacking success has come at the expense of defensive robustness, with the team potentially fortunate not to have conceded more. Everton and Leeds United have also conceded fewer goals than their defensive metrics might suggest, indicating strong overall defensive performances.