England has emerged as the most dangerous team in the air at the World Cup, according to a study by scientists at Northeastern University. The research analyzed headers performed by teams throughout the tournament, revealing that England possesses a significantly higher total expected goals (xG) from headed shots than any other nation.
England has accumulated 2.9 xG from headed shots, converting four goals on 22 attempts, a performance that places them at the top of the aerial effectiveness rankings. Argentina, set to face England in a semi-final match, is ranked seventh in this aerial analysis.
This finding may not surprise England fans, who have witnessed key header goals from players like Harry Kane in previous matches. The study compared header statistics from the current World Cup with those from the 2018 and 2022 tournaments. Researchers observed a general decline in the percentage of goals scored from headers, dropping from 23.7% in 2018 to 17.9% in the current tournament. However, headers are becoming more accurate, with an 11.4% conversion rate and a 33.5% shot-on-target rate.
Furthermore, header assists have seen a notable increase. The current World Cup has recorded 10 header assists, a significant jump from the two recorded across both the 2018 and 2022 tournaments combined. Scientists suggest that an increase in pre-planned set-piece strategies, particularly from throw-ins and corner kicks, could explain this trend. The analysis also identified a 38.8% increase in long throw-ins into the box during the 2026 World Cup.
"Off corner kicks and throw–ins, more players are making flick–on passes with their heads—a quick, redirecting touch of the ball—to teammates to finish, instead of attempting header shots directly off corner kicks," the researchers stated. This strategic approach might contribute to the growing number of header assists.
Interestingly, the study also found that a significant portion of header goals occur towards the end of halves. Nearly a quarter (24%) of header goals were scored late in the first half, and a third occurred in the final minutes of games. Experts suggest this pattern could be attributed to teams pushing players higher up the pitch in a bid to score before halftime or equalize or take the lead in the closing moments of a match.
This analysis follows a separate project by the same research team, which developed an algorithm to measure and rank the excitement of World Cup games based on factors such as stakes, chances, drama, spectacle, and payoff. While Belgium's match against Senegal was rated the most exciting game so far, none of England's matches have appeared in the top 10 according to this model.