Bryce Harper, a former Home Run Derby champion and current Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter, is the leading favorite to win the 2026 edition of the event, with odds set at +800. Harper will have the advantage of competing in his home ballpark.
This year's Home Run Derby will feature a new format as it moves to Netflix. The competition will replace the traditional timed rounds with a swing-limit system. Each participant will have 20 swings in the first round, followed by 15 swings in the semi-final and final rounds. An exception allows hitters to continue swinging if their final swing results in a home run.
Other notable contestants and their odds include Junior Caminero at +425, who finished second last year, and Kyle Schwarber at +300. Schwarber, who leads the league in home runs, will also be playing in his home stadium.
Contestants like Munetaka Murakami (+700, 20 home runs) and Jac Caglianone (+700, 15 home runs) are also in the field, though some analysts express caution due to recent injuries or unfamiliarity with the ballpark.
Jordan Walker, who has hit 22 home runs this season, is considered a strong underdog at +800. Willson Contreras, with 20 home runs, is also noted as a potential contender at +1400 odds, though his season has been marked by off-field events. Contreras is participating in his first Home Run Derby.
Analysts have identified Harper as their official pick to win the event. Underdog bets are also recommended for Jordan Walker and Willson Contreras. Harper is also favored to reach the semi-finals at -115 odds.