A prediction made in 1960 by Austrian physicist Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues, which identified November 13, 2026, as a theoretical 'Doomsday' for humanity, is nearing its projected date. The scientists' paper, published in the journal Science and titled 'Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, AD 2026,' suggested that the human population would approach infinity if unchecked growth continued.
Their analysis examined 24 independent estimates of the world's population spanning nearly 2,000 years. The researchers observed that the time required for the global population to double was progressively decreasing. They posited that humanity's increasing capacity for cooperation, technological development, and resource management was accelerating this growth. "Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve to death," the researchers wrote. "They will be squeezed to death."
The model, which demonstrated a margin of error of approximately seven percent when applied to historical data, extended this trend into the future. The point at which the population would theoretically reach infinity was extrapolated to late 2026, a concept von Foerster termed 'Doomsday.' The calculation carried an uncertainty of about five and a half years, making the specific November 13 date a popularized interpretation rather than a precise forecast.
When the paper was published in 1960, the global population was just over three billion. Currently, it stands at approximately 8.2 billion. However, the annual global population growth rate has decreased significantly from a peak of around 2.2 percent in the early 1960s to about 0.84 percent in 2026. This slowdown means that at the current rate, the population would take approximately 83 years to double, compared to about 32 years at the 1960s rate.
The prediction garnered attention from various publications and appeared in textbooks on genetics, ecology, and population studies for decades. The researchers argued that their projection remained significant as it required only a slight extrapolation beyond the available historical data to reach the theoretical endpoint.