A prediction from 1960 that humanity would reach a mathematical 'Doomsday' on November 13, 2026, is now just a day away. Austrian physicist Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues published a paper in the journal Science that suggested the human population would approach infinity if its accelerating growth continued unchecked.
Their equation, titled "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, AD 2026," extrapolated from 24 population estimates spanning nearly 2,000 years. The researchers observed that the time needed for the global population to double was decreasing, suggesting that humanity's capacity for cooperation, technological development, and resource management was fueling exponential growth. They warned that rather than starving, future generations could face an existential threat from overcrowding, writing, 'They will be squeezed to death.'
When the paper was published, the world population was just over three billion. Today, it stands at approximately 8.2 billion. However, the global population growth rate has slowed significantly, falling from a peak of about 2.2 percent in 1963 to approximately 0.84 percent in 2026.
At the 1960s growth rate, the population would double every 32 years. At the current rate, doubling would take roughly 83 years. Despite the slowing growth, von Foerster's prediction has resurfaced as the projected date nears.
The researchers used global population totals to minimize distortions from regional events like wars or migration. They applied a statistical method to the historical data, finding a curve that fit the figures with a margin of error of about seven percent. When extended into the future, this curve pointed to late 2026 as the theoretical point of infinite population growth, with a calculated uncertainty of approximately five and a half years around the November 13 date.
The prediction garnered attention at the time, appearing in publications like Time and The New York Times, and was even referenced in the Pogo comic strip. Its influence extended into academic circles, cited in textbooks on genetics, ecology, and population studies from the 1960s through the 1980s.