Bettors are wagering millions of dollars on the rumored wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, with prediction markets showing significant activity across various aspects of the potential ceremony, from the venue to the guest list.
While the couple has not confirmed any wedding plans, prediction markets indicate that a significant majority of wagers do not believe Swift is currently pregnant. Only 2% of bettors on Polymarket have staked money on this outcome.
Venue and Guest List Predictions
Speculation about the wedding's location has also drawn considerable attention, with over $2 million wagered on Kalshi. New York is the favored state, with approximately 75% of bettors anticipating the wedding will take place there. More than half of these bets predict Madison Square Garden as the venue. Another 25% of bettors believe Swift and Kelce will marry at Swift's home in Rhode Island.
An entertainment industry executive confirmed to The New York Times that a multi-day event was scheduled to take place at Madison Square Garden, rented by Swift, beginning July 2. Reports suggest the festivities may include an intimate gathering for about 100 people on July 2, followed by a larger celebration for approximately 1,000 guests on July 3, which could include stage performances.
Bridal Party and Guest Predictions
Prediction markets are also active in forecasting who will be part of the wedding party and who will receive an invitation. Abigail Anderson, Swift's childhood best friend, is heavily favored to be a bridesmaid, with 92% of bettors expecting her inclusion. Other favorites for the bridal party include Ashley Avignone, Gigi Hadid, Este Haim, and Kylie Kelce. On Kelce's side, his brother Jason Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and Swift's brother Austin are widely expected to be included.
Conversely, many bettors do not expect Blake Lively to receive an invitation, with roughly three-quarters of users on Kalshi predicting her absence. This speculation follows legal disputes involving Justin Baldoni that drew Swift into headlines due to unsealed text messages. Harry Styles is also not widely expected to attend.
Expected guests include longtime friend and producer Jack Antonoff, Patrick and Brittany Mahomes, Selena Gomez and her fiancé Benny Blanco, the Haim sisters, and fellow musicians Sabrina Carpenter and Gracie Abrams. Two NYPD officers patrolling Madison Square Garden on June 24 confirmed to Variety that they had been alerted to a potential increase in Swift fans and paparazzi during the speculated wedding weekend.