"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is tracking for a monumental opening weekend, with some industry analysts predicting the film could "easily" surpass $300 million in domestic ticket sales. While distributor Sony Pictures is projecting a more conservative $195 million, pre-sale data released Thursday indicates a stronger performance.
Box office prognosticators suggest the film has the potential to achieve the second-highest opening weekend of all time, with estimates ranging from $280 million to $300 million, according to Daniel Loria of Boxoffice Pro. He cautioned that these figures are not expectations but reflect the film's significant momentum. To date, only nine movies have debuted with over $200 million domestically, and just two of those have opened in the post-pandemic era. The most recent "Spider-Man" film, "No Way Home," set the franchise record with $260 million in December 2021.
Loria noted that any figure in the $200 million range would be considered a substantial success. However, the surge in pre-sales has made it difficult to establish a definitive ceiling for "Brand New Day." Some forecasting models suggest the film could clear $300 million, though it is unlikely to challenge "Avengers: Endgame," which holds the record for the highest opening weekend at $357.1 million in 2019.
The film's wide release is also contributing to its projected success, with Loria estimating that "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is playing on nearly half of all screens available this weekend. Typically, new releases secure about 20% of showtimes.
"The Odyssey," starring Tom Holland, also opened at No. 1 earlier this month, capturing 22% of the market share for showtimes, including a substantial number of IMAX screens. That film is also expected to perform well in its second weekend. Holland is featured in both of the summer's major film releases. He is slated to portray Fred Astaire in an upcoming biopic, though that project remains in development.