Two high-profile performances unveiled during the fall festival run have pushed Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Sydney Sweeney into early awards-season conversation, with both actors portraying real-life fighters in films that premiered as the Toronto International Film Festival wrapped much of the industry’s fall slate.
Johnson stars as mixed-martial-arts competitor Mark Kerr in The Smashing Machine, while Sweeney plays boxer Christy Martin in Christy. Both roles lean into the Academy’s historic interest in physical-transformational performances, but responses at festivals and the broader awards landscape make clear that nominations are not assured.
Early critical reaction split along film lines. Christy drew positive notices in Toronto for Sweeney’s performance, with reviewers calling the role a demanding, transformative turn that traces years of an abused woman’s life. The Smashing Machine, which received a lengthy standing ovation at Venice and a directing prize for Benny Safdie, prompted more mixed responses at TIFF; some critics praised Johnson’s work but described the film’s pacing and storytelling as subdued for a sports drama. Johnson and co-star Emily Blunt attended the Toronto screening.
The Academy’s historical patterns provide context for how each actor’s chances might unfold. Biographical and boxing-or-MMA-centered roles have produced acting awards in the past, from Sylvester Stallone and Mickey Rourke to Robert De Niro, Hilary Swank and Christian Bale. The Oscars have also favored comeback narratives and high-profile stars who demonstrate range beyond their established personas, a trajectory that mirrors Johnson’s career arc from WWE performer to mainstream movie star.
At the same time, the Academy’s reactions can be shaped by publicity and perception. Newcomer or ingenue narratives have helped recent winners, and some awards observers point to factors beyond performance—such as media controversies or career narratives—that can influence voting. That dynamic may work in different ways for Sweeney, a younger performer rising from television prominence, and Johnson, whose global fame and industry profile are substantial.
Even as attention centers on Johnson and Sweeney, several other performances from the festival circuit and the fall release schedule have emerged as potential frontrunners. Jessie Buckley’s leading role in Hamnet, a drama imagining the impact of the death of William Shakespeare’s son, has been widely cited by critics as an early Best Actress frontrunner following strong festival screenings. Cynthia Erivo, returning to a more dramatic portrayal in the Wicked follow-up Wicked: For Good, is also expected to be in awards conversations.
On the men’s side, contenders include Brendan Fraser for Rental Family, a character-driven film about an American in Japan; Stellan Skarsgård for a role as a has-been director in the Norwegian feature Sentimental Value; and established names such as Leonardo DiCaprio in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Timothée Chalamet has also generated buzz for Marty Supreme, in which he plays a table-tennis prodigy; the film’s holiday-season release places it squarely in awards-calendaring territory.
The timing of these premieres matters: in recent seasons many eventual Oscar winners had already been seen by mid-fall festival audiences, giving the Academy and awards pundits months to assess contenders. With festival programming largely complete, distributors will weigh release strategies and campaigns that can bolster visibility among members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
For Johnson and Sweeney, the path to nominations will involve sustained critical momentum, strategic awards campaigns and how voters weigh performance against the films’ overall reception. Both have taken roles that historically attract Oscar attention—physically demanding, transformative portrayals rooted in real lives—but the crowded field and mixed reviews for at least one of the films underscore that early buzz does not guarantee a nod.
As the season moves toward the traditional awards voting period, industry attention is likely to coalesce around a smaller group of widely seen and promoted performances. Festival reactions have elevated several names into that conversation; whether Dwayne Johnson or Sydney Sweeney will translate festival attention into historic first Oscars remains to be seen.