Ryanair has issued a warning that airfares across Europe may increase if current oil prices persist into next summer, a scenario that could potentially lead to the collapse of some rival airlines. The Irish carrier stated that if fuel costs remain at an elevated level until summer 2027, short-haul airfares in Europe are likely to "increase materially."

According to Ryanair, less well-hedged competitors may struggle to maintain capacity or even survive the upcoming winter season. This echoes previous concerns from the airline, as rising fuel costs have prompted carriers to either maintain capacity at current levels or reduce it in anticipation of the slower winter months.

The price of Brent crude has recently climbed above $95 a barrel, with jet fuel trading around $156 a barrel. Ryanair previously lowered prices in the months following the outbreak of the war, with CEO Michael O'Leary acknowledging that fares "required stimulation" due to jet fuel shortage concerns and consumer hesitation.

Ryanair is currently on track to increase its summer traffic by over 5 percent year-on-year, though fares trended "modestly" downward in the second quarter. To mitigate exposure to unhedged oil prices during the "unprofitable" winter season, the airline has reduced its traffic target for the current financial year to 214 million passengers from 216 million.

This adjustment is expected to reduce losses by €70 million to €100 million. In concrete operational terms, Ryanair has already removed five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and cut two million seats from its Brussels schedule for the winter 2026 and summer 2027 periods. The airline now anticipates its winter traffic, from November to March, will be largely flat compared to the previous year.

Ryanair has hedged approximately 80 percent of its jet fuel needs through to March 2027 at roughly $67 per barrel and remains optimistic about another profitable year. However, profit after tax is expected to fall short of last year's record level, and the company stated it is too early to provide detailed financial guidance.