Iran-backed Houthi rebels have captured the Red Sea port of Mokha and a strategic island off Yemen's coast, bringing their forces closer to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for global commerce. The swift advance, which saw Mokha fall on Thursday and the island of Mayun (also known as Perim) on Friday, extends the rebels' reach near one of the world's most vital commercial shipping lanes.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and onward to the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea. It is a crucial route for oil and other goods traveling between Asia and Europe. Historically, when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faced restrictions, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait became an important alternative for Saudi crude oil supplies to Asia, especially after shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were impacted by threats from Iran.
Despite assurances from the Houthis that vessels not involved in their embargo on Saudi-linked shipping remain safe, the recent Houthi actions have renewed attention on the risks to maritime traffic in the strait. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait began in late 2023, in response to Israel's war in Gaza, leading many shipping companies to reroute vessels due to safety concerns. Overall traffic through the strait has reportedly decreased by approximately 60% compared to pre-attack levels, though it remains a significant route for freight between Asia and Europe.
This disruption has had a notable impact on Saudi oil exports. According to the International Energy Agency, Red Sea oil loadings for Saudi Arabia fell from 3.8 million barrels per day in August to 2.2 million barrels per day. This contributed to an overall decrease in Saudi supply to 6 million barrels per day, the lowest in three decades. Many Saudi tankers have consequently diverted from their usual routes, opting to travel northwest towards the Suez Canal.
For tankers too large to transit the Suez Canal, oil is offloaded at Ain Sokhna in Egypt and transferred via pipeline to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast for pickup by another tanker. This workaround, or routing through the Suez Canal, significantly increases transit times to Asian destinations. For example, a journey to South Korea that might have taken 24 days via the Red Sea now takes 54 days, more than doubling the travel time and increasing charter costs, which can exceed $100,000 per day amidst current global energy market volatility.
While Saudi and Israeli-linked shipping had already largely rerouted away from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Houthis' increased control raises questions about their future actions. Analysts suggest the rebels are now in a stronger position to expand their operations if they choose to do so. Meanwhile, increased attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have also put a U.S. shipping route there on hold, adding further complexity to global energy transport.