A verdict is imminent in the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro over allegations he sought to overturn Brazil's 2022 election, and the case has sharpened political divisions that played out in rival rallies on the country's Independence Day.
On Tuesday five Supreme Court justices are due to begin handing down verdicts one by one on whether Bolsonaro masterminded a coup after losing the 2022 vote to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The charges include proposing a coup to military commanders, having knowledge of a plot to assassinate President‑elect Lula and Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and inciting supporters to attack government buildings on Jan. 8, 2023 after casting doubt on the electoral system. Bolsonaro denies the charges and says the case is politically motivated.
Thousands of people took to the streets on Sept. 7, some calling for “Amnesty!” and chanting for the removal of Justice Moraes, who is the rapporteur on the trial. Others gathered nearby to defend the Supreme Court and demand accountability, carrying signs that read “Prison for Bolsonaro” and “Trump, paws off Brazil.” Patriotic symbols such as the national flag and the football shirt featured at both demonstrations; at pro‑Bolsonaro events some participants also displayed U.S. paraphernalia.
Supporters say the trial is persecution. “They are doing a big theatre because everyone knows his conviction is already determined,” said Erica, who attended a pro‑Bolsonaro rally. Bianca, another participant in São Paulo, said the United States’ actions — including sanctions and tariffs — were influencing public sentiment and slowing momentum against Bolsonaro.
Opponents framed a conviction as a necessary defense of Brazil’s democracy. “All the evidence shows it was a coup attempt,” said Karina at a counter‑rally. Rafael, another demonstrator, called Bolsonaro’s possible arrest a “victory” and accused him of committing “serious crimes” against Brazilians.
The trial has attracted international attention and heightened diplomatic tensions. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has described the proceedings as “political persecution,” and the U.S. administration recently imposed tariffs and sanctions that have been defended by Bolsonaro allies, including his son Eduardo Bolsonaro. Some Brazilians view such measures as foreign interference and unpatriotic, while others say they underscore concerns about the ex‑president’s actions.
The Supreme Court’s role in the case has itself become a focal point for controversy. Justice Moraes led an inquiry into disinformation and threats targeting the court that has resulted in jail terms for Bolsonaro allies and the removal of social media accounts. Critics say such measures are an overreach into policing and politics; supporters argue they are necessary to protect institutions in a digital age. Moraes is both the trial rapporteur and an alleged target in a plot that prosecutors say Bolsonaro knew about, which has intensified claims of bias from the ex‑president’s backers.
A widely discussed emblem of the court’s reach is the case of Débora Rodrigues dos Santos, a 39‑year‑old Bolsonaro supporter who was initially sentenced to 14 years after writing “You lost, idiot” in lipstick on the statue of Justice outside the Supreme Court. The sentence was later converted to house arrest because she cares for children, but the severity of the charge and the fact she was tried before the Supreme Court continue to fuel resentment among Bolsonaro’s followers.
Brazil’s modern democracy, restored in 1985 after two decades of military rule, remains a central element in public debate. Critics of Bolsonaro say the Jan. 8 assaults on the capital’s key institutions were an attack on that fragile democracy and argue the trial represents the first time individuals accused of plotting a coup have been held to account at such a level. Ricardo Cappelli, the former minister who helped restore order in Brasilia after the Jan. 8 riots, said the trial could “turn a page in history” by signaling that threats to democratic institutions will not be tolerated.
Some lawmakers in Bolsonaro’s party, which holds a congressional majority, have pushed legislation that would grant amnesty to the former president and the Jan. 8 protesters. Supporters of amnesty argue that pardoning past political violence can defuse tensions, while critics warn that clemency for alleged coup plotters could encourage future attempts to subvert democratic processes.
The trial’s outcome is likely to reverberate across Brazil’s political landscape. For Bolsonaro’s supporters, a conviction would confirm their view that the judiciary and political rivals are seeking to sideline him; for opponents, it would be vindication that the courts can uphold democratic norms against alleged efforts to overturn an election. Moderate figures on the right have said they hope the proceedings will draw a line under the crisis, but analysts and participants say the country’s sharply divergent definitions of authoritarianism and justice mean the verdict could further entrench polarization.
Observers say the fallout will depend on legal rulings, subsequent political moves by Congress and the public reaction to any convictions or acquittals. As the first of the justices prepares to read a verdict, Brazil faces a test of institutional resilience and public trust in a judiciary that has become both protector and target in the country’s fraught politics.
