The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Western Sahara, MINURSO, has concluded its 35-year mandate following an impasse between the United States and Russia at the UN Security Council. The mission's withdrawal has sparked celebrations in Morocco, which views the end of MINURSO as an opportunity to advance its proposal for autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. However, the move also raises concerns about a potential escalation of conflict in the disputed territory.
Western Sahara, rich in phosphates and fishing grounds, has been a point of contention since Spain withdrew in 1975. Morocco claimed the territory, leading to a conflict with the Polisario Front, an independence movement representing the Sahrawi people. While Mauritania initially shared control, it relinquished its claim in 1979, leaving Morocco and Polisario to continue their dispute.
Morocco's royal palace welcomed the end of MINURSO's mandate, with celebrations reported in Laayoune, the territory's largest city. An Moroccan expert on international relations, Issam Laaroussi, stated that the mission's departure allows Rabat "more room to push its autonomy proposal and shift negotiations away from a referendum on independence towards autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty." Despite this, the decision does not alter Western Sahara's legal status as a UN non-self-governing territory, nor does it constitute international recognition of Moroccan sovereignty. The African Union, meanwhile, officially recognizes the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).
Recent years have seen increased international backing for Morocco's position. In 2020, the US recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara as part of a normalization deal with Israel. France also expressed support for Morocco's autonomy plan in 2024 as a basis for resolving the dispute.
However, the departure of MINURSO, which has monitored military activities and helped de-escalate tensions, could create security vacuums. Oxfam, an aid organization, warned that the loss of the mission's monitoring and de-escalation role could destabilize the region, with significant consequences for civilians. Laaroussi acknowledged that the mission's absence "could aggravate an already fragile security environment." The end of the mission has also fueled nationalist sentiment online, with some Moroccans sharing AI-generated images of themselves in military uniform, ready to defend Morocco's claim. Western Sahara is a deeply felt national cause in Morocco, uniting political parties across ideological divides.
Morocco's Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita affirmed that the end of the mission does not signify the end of the ceasefire, with Rabat committed to it "within respect of its security and sovereignty." The Polisario Front has not yet announced its next steps. A resumption of fighting could potentially draw in Algeria, which has high tensions with Morocco and significantly increased its military spending last year, partly driven by the Western Sahara dispute. According to SIPRI, Algeria's defense expenditure reached an estimated $25.4 billion, more than four times Morocco's $6.3 billion.