Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has surged and the federal Coalition has recorded its lowest primary vote on record, according to two polls published Monday that reflect growing voter dissatisfaction amid internal Liberal Party tensions.
The Newspoll, conducted last week and published in The Australian, found the Coalition’s primary vote collapsed to 27 percent — the lowest level recorded since the survey began tracking first preferences in 1985. Labor’s primary vote held at 36 percent, giving Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a 58–42 two-party-preferred lead, his largest margin in office. One Nation’s primary support rose to 10 percent from 6.4 percent at the May 3 federal election.
The Newspoll attributed part of the shift to turmoil within the Coalition after Opposition Leader Sussan Ley sacked Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price from the frontbench, a move that exposed divisions over migration, climate policy and net-zero commitments. Deputy Liberal leader Ted O’Brien acknowledged the party had endured a difficult week and said lessons in humility were being learned. "Politics builds big egos, but I tell you, it also gives you some good lessons in humility and we're learning those lessons now," he told Nine’s Today program.
Independent Senator Jacqui Lambie warned that Ms. Ley could face a leadership challenge by Christmas if the Coalition’s polling does not improve. Ms. Ley has sought to reassert control by reshuffling her frontbench, promoting conservatives Claire Chandler and Simon Kennedy and reinstating James Paterson to her leadership group.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson said voters were turning away from the major parties. "Australians are turning away from the lies and weak leadership of the major parties," she said. "Aussies know what we stand for, and that is why so many are getting behind us. It is time to scrap net zero, bring back cheap, reliable energy. End mass immigration. Put Australians first. They're choosing One Nation because we say what others won't, and we’ll do what others never will."
The Newspoll also recorded gains for the Greens and minor parties. The Greens rose to 13 percent, while support for independents and other minor parties increased to 14 percent.
Ms. Ley’s personal standing dipped in the Newspoll, with a net approval rating of minus 17 and just 32 percent of voters satisfied with her performance. She trailed Mr. Albanese 31 percent to 51 percent as preferred prime minister. Mr. Albanese’s approval rating also fell into negative territory at minus five, although he retained a substantial two-party lead.
The Resolve Political Monitor, published Monday in Nine newspapers, produced broadly similar results. It recorded the Coalition’s primary vote at 27 percent, the lowest since that survey began in 2021, and put Labor at 35 percent, down two points from its May showing. Resolve found One Nation at a record 12 percent and reported an unchanged two-party-preferred margin of 55–45 in favor of Labor.
Resolve’s results differed from Newspoll on leader ratings: it logged Mr. Albanese’s net performance rating at minus one and Ms. Ley’s at plus nine, yet Mr. Albanese led 38 percent to 26 percent as preferred prime minister.
Both polls indicate a broader decline in support for the two major parties and an increased appetite among voters for minor parties and independents, trends that could reshape the political landscape ahead of the next federal election. Analysts said the results underscore the political risk posed by internal party disputes and contentious policy debates on migration and climate change, which have animated recent factional battles within the Coalition.
The Newspoll was conducted last week and its findings were published on Monday. The Resolve monitor published its latest survey results the same day. Party officials and strategists on both sides said they would continue to focus on policy messaging and campaign positioning in the coming months as voting intentions remain volatile.