Super El Niño Could Cause Over 450,000 Deaths, Scientists Warn

A projected 451,000 lives could be lost globally due to the current Super El Niño event, with an estimated 239,000 deaths occurring in the next six months alone, according to a new report from scientists at the University of Chicago.

The researchers utilized climate models to forecast the potential consequences of the climate pattern, which causes surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean to warm abnormally. The current El Niño, which began in June and is expected to persist into next year, has been developing at an unprecedented pace.

Scientists warned that the unusually warm global temperatures associated with this El Niño serve as a preview of future climate conditions. "Mortality projections for the near term provide a signal of where we are headed if new adaptation investments do not materialize," the researchers stated. They added that "the difference with climate change is that there is more time to undertake adaptations to save lives."

The report indicates that countries in the Global South are expected to bear the brunt of heat-related deaths in the coming months. The Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad, could see an additional 66,800 heat deaths between September and February compared to a typical year. Southeast Asia may experience an extra 19,400 deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, with Indonesia facing an additional 19,300 deaths.

Other nations projected to face significant increases in heat-related fatalities include India, with an estimated 15,800 additional deaths, and Brazil, which could see 13,300. The timing of these deaths is expected to vary. For instance, Nigeria and Indonesia are forecast to experience 15,400 and 10,400 more heat deaths than normal between December and February, respectively, while Brazil and India could see 8,000 and 7,400 additional deaths during the same three-month period.

Looking ahead, the researchers anticipate a rise in heat deaths in the Northern Hemisphere after February. They plan to provide updated forecasts that pinpoint specific regions and shifts in heat-related mortality, enabling decision-makers to target interventions effectively.

The scientists are calling for urgent action in areas identified as high-risk. They highlight existing solutions such as early warning systems, enhanced water availability, and broader access to cooling technologies, though they note that many of these have only been tested in limited regions. "We need to build the evidence base now for what works, and then invest in preparations and planning," they urged. They stressed that preparing for a hotter future requires a more detailed and continuously updated understanding of what measures are most effective in saving lives across diverse regions, climates, and health systems.