Southeast Asian leaders gathered in Manila, Philippines, for their annual summit, with pressing global conflicts and their consequences at the forefront of the agenda. The three-day talks, involving dialogues with world leaders including U.S. President Donald Trump, aim to address the most troubling international disputes, with a particular focus on the war in the Middle East.
Draft communiques indicate that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders are likely to reaffirm their commitment to international law and the peaceful resolution of disputes. Key areas of concern include the long-standing conflicts in the South China Sea and the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. The bloc also intends to focus on strategies to mitigate the economic and social fallout from these intractable global conflicts.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., in his opening remarks, emphasized the importance of unity within the 11-nation bloc despite its diversity, especially in the face of shifting geopolitical tides, economic uncertainties, technological advancements, climate change, and transnational threats. He warned that global challenges are reshaping the region at an unprecedented pace.
However, ASEAN's history suggests that achieving unity can be challenging for the diverse bloc, which comprises democracies and authoritarian states with varying alignments to global powers like the United States and China. The group is often recognized more for projecting unity through ceremonial events than for effectively resolving regional conflicts.
U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in several key meetings late Tuesday, including discussions with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—comprising the United States, Japan, Australia, and India—which is largely viewed as a counterbalance to China. He will also attend a special summit with ASEAN leaders.
Trump is expected to meet with President Marcos on Wednesday, where they will likely reaffirm their countries' long-standing treaty alliance. Following this, Trump is scheduled to travel to Shenzhen, China, for the APEC summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Geopolitical analysts suggest that Trump's brief stop in Manila will serve to reassure allies and partners before his engagement in China. However, recent midterm electoral setbacks for his party may weaken his political standing and potentially diminish China's interest in making compromises during his meetings with Xi.
China will be represented at the Manila summit by its premier, Li Qiang, who is scheduled to meet with ASEAN leaders before Trump's arrival.