Ship Attacks Near Hormuz Reach Record High Amidst Slowing Oil Exports

The number of ships reporting attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz has surged to a record high, with 12 vessels targeted between October 5 and 11, according to BBC Verify's analysis of data from the UK's Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency. This marks the highest weekly total since the conflict involving Iran intensified. The previous week saw 10 ships report attacks, and six incidents occurred on a single day, Sunday, October 8.

As the frequency of these attacks has risen, the recovery in oil shipments through the strait has slowed, industry data indicates. About 12.6 million barrels per day passed through the strait on October 13, a decrease from approximately 15 million barrels per day at the end of September. This figure remains below the pre-conflict baseline of around 17 million barrels per day.

Experts suggest that Iran is intensifying attacks to assert greater control over the vital waterway, while simultaneously, the U.S. military has increased its escorting of tankers through the southern part of the strait to avoid Iranian strikes. The attacks are also extending further from the Strait of Hormuz itself.

"The aim here is to stop the ships going through and to deter others," said Martin Kelly, CEO of Orbital Risk Intelligence, noting that Iran has "evolved its strategy" in response to efforts to maintain passage through the strait. He added that Iran is targeting ships near the coastlines of Gulf Arab states and in the Gulf of Oman.

Notable Incidents and Casualties

One of the reported attacks on Sunday involved the Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin, which was struck by a drone near Sohar, Oman, over 250 km (150 miles) from the strait. Verified footage captured the vessel engulfed in flames. Eleven Indian seafarers were rescued, but two remain missing, according to the Forward Seamen's Union of India.

Another incident occurred on Tuesday when the container ship GFS Pride sank in the strait after being hit by an unknown projectile. Twenty-one crew members were safely evacuated. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released footage of the sinking, claiming the vessel was carrying contraband and had taken an unauthorized route.

Further attacks have been reported further afield. On Thursday, October 8, a tanker north of Qatar, more than 500 km (310 miles) from the strait, was reportedly hit by multiple projectiles, resulting in casualties. On Friday, October 9, a tanker near Al-Jazirah al-Hamra in the United Arab Emirates was struck, with verified footage showing crew members donning lifejackets amidst rising smoke.

The U.S. military's Central Command stated that despite the attacks, "commercial traffic continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz with co-ordinated protection from U.S. forces and regional partners." Data from the U.S. Navy shows that the number of vessels receiving assistance to navigate the Strait of Hormuz in the first 10 days of October increased by 85% compared to the same period in August.

Much of the oil shipped from Gulf Arab states recently has utilized a