Russia and Belarus on Friday launched a large, long-planned joint military exercise dubbed “Zapad 2025,” involving thousands of troops and operations on both countries’ territory as well as at sea. The drills, which the partners say are defensive in purpose, will run through Tuesday and have heightened concerns among NATO members and neighbours about Moscow’s military intentions amid the war in Ukraine.
The exercises come days after what European leaders described as a deliberate Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace earlier in the week, an event that prompted rare alarm among NATO allies and revived fears that hostilities in Ukraine could spill beyond the country’s borders. Russian authorities denied targeting Poland and said the drones were not aimed at NATO territory, while Belarusian officials suggested some unmanned systems had veered off course.
Belarusian defence officials initially said roughly 13,000 personnel would take part in Zapad 2025 in areas near the country’s western border, but in May the ministry announced the figure would be cut by nearly half and that the main maneuvers would be staged deeper inside Belarus. Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said most drills would be concentrated around Barysaw, about 74 kilometres (46 miles) northeast of the capital, Minsk, while some small units would conduct exercises closer to the borders with Poland and Lithuania.
Moscow’s Defence Ministry said Friday that segments of the exercise will also occur on Russian soil and at sea in the Baltic and Barents Seas. Khrenin told state media that troops would practise "planning the use" of Russian nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system that Russia has said it may station in Belarus. In December, the two countries signed a pact that Belarusian officials described as extending Russian security guarantees to Minsk and permitting, if necessary, the use of Russian nuclear weapons to repel aggression against Belarus.
Western capitals and Kyiv have voiced particular concern because of history: when Russian forces launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, many units entered from Belarus following bilateral drills held days earlier. Latvia, Lithuania and Poland — countries that share a border with Belarus — cited the exercise’s proximity to their frontiers as a source of unease.
Belarus has sought to frame the exercises as transparent and invited observers. Minsk sent formal invitations to all member states of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and to nine countries with NATO military attaches in Belarus, offering them opportunities to monitor the drills, officials said.
The drills also occur against a backdrop of cautious diplomatic warming between Minsk and some Western actors. Belarus’s authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who has led the country for more than three decades and whose government has been accused of severe rights abuses, recently released scores of political prisoners under a deal brokered by the United States. The U.S. subsequently eased some sanctions on Belarus’s national airline. Last month Lukashenko spoke by phone with former U.S. President Donald Trump; Trump later described him in a social media post as a “highly respected President,” a characterization at odds with most other Western responses to Minsk.
Moscow has indicated plans to deepen military ties with Belarus, including potentially deploying the Oreshnik missile system there. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said such missiles could be emplaced in Belarus in the second half of 2025 and would remain under Russian control even if based in Belarusian territory, while Minsk would take part in target selection, according to Russian statements.
NATO has not publicly indicated any immediate military response to the exercises beyond monitoring and diplomatic protest, and Russian and Belarusian officials have reiterated that Zapad 2025 is defensive in nature. Still, the combination of recent cross-border drone activity, past use of Belarusian territory during the 2022 invasion and the prospect of exercises near NATO frontiers has kept tensions elevated among neighbours and allied capitals.
Reporting from the region continues as the exercises proceed and as Western officials assess the implications for security and stability in northeastern Europe.