A report by the pressure group Migration Watch says the number of people who have reached England in small boats since records began in December 2018 now exceeds the total personnel of Britain’s armed forces.
Migration Watch cited Home Office statistics showing 182,164 small-boat arrivals since December 2018, compared with 180,779 personnel in the British Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force as of January. The group said almost 90 percent of those arriving in small boats are male and 67 percent are between 18 and 39, and warned that the rate of arrivals is accelerating.
Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration Watch, said the crossing numbers were rising rapidly and argued that recent government measures were insufficient to stop illegal crossings. “It has taken eight years to reach 181,000 — at the current rate as many will come in little more than three,” he said. “Most worrying is that nothing the government has done or proposes will stem the tide of illegal boats. The will is simply not there.”
Home Office figures show 54,268 small-boat arrivals since Labour won the July 2024 general election, including 188 people in three dinghies reported on Wednesday. Officials said annual arrivals so far have topped 30,000, a 37 percent rise from the previous year, and 2,203 people landed in the country in the week following the appointment of the new home secretary.
The surge has coincided with fatal incidents at sea. Home Office figures and media reports say four people, including two children, died in separate incidents this week. Border Force officials also recorded the first so-called “uncontrolled” landing in Kent since December 2022, in which a small boat reached a beach without interception.
Labour frontbenchers have placed responsibility for managing the crossings on the new home secretary. Shabana Mahmood, who was appointed this month after serving as justice secretary, said she would “explore all options to restore order to our immigration system.” Mahmood said the government’s agreement with France allows people crossing in small boats to be detained and removed to France, and she expected returns to begin “imminently.”
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has told the home secretary to “get a grip” on the situation, and government plans under consideration include moving asylum seekers from costly commercial hotels into military barracks and expanding a “one in, one out” returns arrangement with France. No removals under the bilateral deal had been reported at the time of the Migration Watch analysis.
Newly appointed Home Office minister Mike Tapp said the French returns deal — negotiated by the previous home secretary — was beginning to act as a deterrent and would undermine people-smuggling business models. “If you’re a migrant sat on a beach in Calais and you’re going to give up to £10,000 to a smuggler, there’s that risk of immediate removal, which means you’re less likely to part with that money,” he told BBC Breakfast. He added he expected “the first flight off the ground in the next few weeks.”
Opposition and Conservative voices offered differing critiques. Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, described the crossings as “staggering” and blamed Labour for cancelling a planned Rwanda removals scheme, saying immediate departures on arrival would end the crossings. Migration Watch described its analysis as highlighting demographic trends and the challenge the arrivals pose for border management.
The Home Office provides regular statistics on small-boat arrivals and has repeatedly said it is working on multiple measures to reduce crossings, increase removals, and disrupt smuggling networks. Migration Watch’s comparison with armed forces numbers reflects a broader debate in the United Kingdom about capacity, public services and how best to deter irregular migration across the Channel.