Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hold on power in Israel is being tested as President Isaac Herzog begins consultations with the leaders of all parties elected to the 26th Knesset to decide who will be tasked with forming the next government. The final vote count showed Netanyahu's bloc securing 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot garnered 48 seats. A majority of 61 seats is required to form a government.
Netanyahu stated that the public does not want a government dependent on parties that "support terrorism and reject the existence of the Jewish state," referring to the predominantly Arab parties, Ra'am and the Joint List. These parties collectively secured 19 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers. A source from the Joint List indicated that the alliance is likely to endorse Eisenkot to form a government. If both predominantly Arab parties back Eisenkot, he would have the support of parties representing more than the 61 seats needed.
President Herzog's consultations will proceed in ascending order of party seat count. The lawmaker tasked with forming a government will have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension. Defense and government affairs commentator Amir Oren suggested that Herzog would likely task the candidate with majority support. However, Oren noted that Eisenkot might struggle to assemble a coalition due to competing interests within the opposition bloc. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beiteinu chief Avigdor Liberman may be unwilling to serve in a government reliant on the Joint List, given its pro-Palestinian stances.
Despite these challenges, a minority government supported from outside the coalition by Arab parties is theoretically possible, though Israel lacks a precedent for such an arrangement immediately following an election. The 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10, and its members will begin forming committees and advancing legislation while the current government continues its duties.
Experts suggest that Eisenkot is the likely first candidate to receive the mandate to form a government. However, if he fails, the mandate would pass to Netanyahu, who also faces difficulties in assembling a coalition. Former Knesset member Dov Lipman proposed that if the process reaches a stage where any Knesset member can attempt to form a government, Eisenkot might agree to serve under Netanyahu for two years to prevent new elections.
Professor Gideon Rahat pointed to the 1984-1988 national unity government as a precedent that could be emulated. Such a government would likely require concessions from Netanyahu, including freezing the judicial overhaul and agreeing on a mechanism for his departure from office. Rahat cautioned that while unity governments can be effective on major security and economic issues, internal disputes often arise once those challenges are addressed.