Labour MPs have privately warned that Prime Minister Keir Starmer could face a leadership challenge within months unless he turns around recent political setbacks, party sources said on Monday.
The warnings follow what senior MPs described as a "nightmare fortnight" for the government, during which two high-profile departures and a damaging row over ties between a senior party figure and the late Jeffrey Epstein intensified scrutiny of Starmer's judgement and leadership team. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigned amid a dispute over her tax affairs, and Lord Peter Mandelson was drawn into controversy over his past connections with Jeffrey Epstein. The government also dismissed its ambassador to the United States less than 24 hours after the prime minister backed him in the House of Commons.
Some Labour MPs say the party’s performance in next May’s local elections will be a decisive test of Starmer’s standing, and have told him he has only months to "turn things around". Starmer entered 10 Downing Street with a large parliamentary majority in July last year, after which he began what he has described as a second phase of his government.
Under Labour’s rulebook, a formal challenge to a sitting leader requires multiple steps. Potential challengers must first secure nominations from 20% of Labour MPs. With the party currently holding 399 seats in the House of Commons, that threshold equates to 80 MPs. As the incumbent, Starmer would not need to seek nominations to appear on any ballot; his name would automatically be included if a contest were called and he chose to run.
After securing the required MP nominations, challengers must obtain the backing of at least 5% of Constituency Labour Parties. Candidates who meet both thresholds must then notify Labour’s general secretary — currently Hollie Ridley — to formalise their nominations. An independent scrutineer would approve the timetable for a leadership ballot.
The final stage is a party-wide vote. Registered Labour members who have been members for at least six months would be eligible to vote, alongside affiliated supporters such as trade union members. Labour uses a one-person, one-vote system for leadership contests. A candidate who receives more than half of the votes would be declared the winner. If more than two candidates stand and no one secures a majority on first preferences, votes are redistributed according to voters’ subsequent preferences until a candidate achieves a majority. The winning candidate would then meet the King to confirm their position as prime minister.
The recent departures and controversies have prompted questions among some backbenchers about the prime minister’s decision-making and political management. MPs cited frustration over the speed and handling of ministerial changes and over lapses in vetting and oversight that they say have exposed the government to reputational damage.
Labour officials have not publicly disclosed internal confidence measures. Party members and officials contacted for comment referred questions about leadership rules and nominations to Labour’s published rulebook and to the general secretary’s office. The timing of any potential challenge would be influenced by political calculations around local election rulings, internal party organisation, and whether challengers can marshal the required MP and CLP support.
Any leadership contest would unfold under the party’s established procedures, which party officials say are designed to balance MP input with wider party membership involvement. The coming months, senior Labour figures acknowledge, will be closely watched as the party prepares for next year’s local ballots and assesses public and internal reactions to the recent upheaval.