Israeli President Isaac Herzog has tasked Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and leader of the center-right Yashar party, with forming the country's next government. This marks a critical step in a potentially lengthy process to determine the next Prime Minister, during which Benjamin Netanyahu could remain in power.
Eisenkot has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to assemble a governing coalition that can win a confidence vote in the 120-seat Knesset, Israel's parliament. This requires uniting rival political parties with differing policy views.
Election Results and Parliamentary Dynamics
The recent election did not result in any party bloc securing the 61 seats needed for a majority. While Netanyahu's Likud party and its allies won the most seats with 53, they fell short of a majority. Eisenkot's bloc, comprising four Jewish-led parties, secured 48 seats, while two Arab-led parties hold the remaining 19. According to Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a majority of voters supported parties seeking to replace Netanyahu, despite individual party vote counts.
To form a government, parties must negotiate an alliance capable of winning a confidence vote. Either Netanyahu's bloc or Eisenkot's bloc could reach a majority by including the Arab-led parties, resulting in 72 or 67 seats respectively. A grand coalition of both blocs would yield 101 seats, but this would necessitate negotiations over leadership, potentially involving a power-sharing agreement as seen in past Israeli governments.
Challenges in Coalition Building
Eisenkot's path to forming a government faces several obstacles. A key strategy would be securing the support of the two Arab-led parties, which hold 19 seats. However, some parties backing Eisenkot, particularly nationalist leaders like Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, have historically opposed governing with Arab parties. While Arab-led parties have sometimes provided external support without joining a coalition, this has historically led to instability.
Another potential avenue for Eisenkot would be to include the ultra-Orthodox parties. However, this is complicated by Eisenkot's demand for a national service mandate for all Israelis, which clashes with the ultra-Orthodox parties' opposition to compulsory military service for yeshiva students.
Netanyahu's Role and Potential Scenarios
As Eisenkot attempts to build a coalition, Netanyahu will continue to head the outgoing government. He is also free to pursue his own coalition-building efforts. If Eisenkot fails to form a government within the allotted time, President Herzog can task another Knesset member, potentially Netanyahu, or declare that no path forward exists.
Should multiple attempts fail, the Knesset would be automatically dissolved, triggering new elections within 90 days. This scenario is not unprecedented in Israel, which experienced five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to coalition-building difficulties.
Netanyahu faces an uphill battle if given the chance to form his own government, as many opposition parties have vowed not to sit with him, citing his alleged disregard for warnings prior to the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. His strategy might involve persuading more right-leaning members of Eisenkot's bloc to join him, potentially by framing it as a less objectionable alternative to collaborating with Arab parties.