Britain and its allies must adopt a more offensive strategy to deter Russia's hybrid warfare tactics, according to former national security adviser Lord Sedwill.
Speaking at the Atlantic Future Forum conference aboard HMS Prince of Wales in Oslo, Lord Sedwill, who also served as Cabinet Secretary, stated that a purely defensive posture is insufficient against adversaries like Vladimir Putin's Russia.
"Sometimes the most effective form of defence is to cause a dilemma, it is to go on the offensive," Lord Sedwill said. "How can we present Russia with a set of strategic dilemmas, how can we make them feel they are under threat?"
He highlighted that the UK and its NATO partners are already engaged in daily hybrid warfare, citing cyber-attacks, bomb threats, assassinations, and financial interference in politics as examples. Lord Sedwill emphasized that deterrence requires not only effective defense but also "jeopardy" for adversaries who continue to probe Western defenses.
The former national security chief also pointed to Iran as an adversary employing hybrid tactics, noting cyber operatives attempting to undermine political cohesion in the UK through social media campaigns. He cautioned against relying solely on conventional defensive strategies, even within a defensive alliance like NATO.
"Allies must not concede the initiative to the Kremlin," he urged, advocating for the imposition of a sense of "jeopardy" to make leaders like President Putin reconsider their actions.
Lord Sedwill stressed that the frontline extends beyond traditional domains of land, sea, and air into cyberspace and information space. "Deterrent requires not just effective defence. It requires there to be some jeopardy," he reiterated.
Intelligence from Norway indicates Russia is increasing its military preparations along NATO's northern flank, reinforcing command posts with sandbag walls and anti-drone netting. Vice Admiral Rune Andersen of the Norwegian Navy noted that Russia's "threat perception has increased," leading to these preparations. Norwegian intelligence chief Kristin Ven Bruusgaard warned that heightened threat perceptions on both sides increase the likelihood of conflict, citing a "high risk of misunderstandings" due to a lack of clarity regarding "red lines."