Russian and Belarusian forces began the Zapad 2025 military exercises on Friday near Poland and Lithuania as NATO’s eastern flank remained on high alert following an overnight incursion of drones into Polish airspace that Warsaw says crossed its border.
Poland reported 19 airspace violations between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and said it had shot down at least three drones. Prime Minister Donald Tusk invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty for the eighth time in NATO history and Poland requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to discuss what its government called an unprecedented attack on a NATO and EU member.
Moscow denied responsibility for the incursion. A senior Russian diplomat in Poland said the drones had come from the direction of Ukraine. Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces had conducted a major attack on military facilities in western Ukraine but that it had not planned to hit any targets in Poland.
Zapad — Russian for “West” — is a recurring exercise held roughly every four years and is formally presented as defensive training, including repelling attacks, airstrikes and sabotage scenarios. Western officials and analysts have repeatedly warned that past Zapad exercises have been used to mask larger force deployments. The 2021 manoeuvres were followed by a marked buildup of Russian forces in Belarus used in the early stages of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Organisers of Zapad 2025 have said the drills would not exceed 13,000 personnel and that Belarus would invite observers from NATO countries. Analysts and former Western officials cautioned the actual numbers and scope could be greater, noting that the Zapad 2021 exercise was expected to include about 12,800 servicemembers but officials later cited substantially higher figures.
"I do think it could serve as a cover," said Lieutenant General (Ret.) Lance Landrum, a CEPA fellow and former deputy chair of NATO’s Military Committee, referring to comparisons with the run-up to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. "Now we have to look and see what exactly they do in this upcoming exercise, because we have a lot of historical intelligence on previous exercises, and we can compare that. There will be a lot to be learned here," he added.
NATO said it would monitor Russian activity "very closely," asserting that it did not see an immediate military threat to any ally but remained vigilant. For alliance planners, the exercises offer an opportunity to observe Russian tactics, including the use of drones, electronic interference and jamming capabilities.
Poland’s government said images circulated by domestic television showed a downed drone and displayed damage to a house they said was struck. Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told local radio that Poland sought to draw "the world's attention to this unprecedented Russian drone attack on a member of the UN, EU, and NATO." Prime Minister Tusk described the incident as a provocation "incomparably more dangerous" than previous ones and warned it brought Europe closer to open conflict than at any time since 1945.
Moscow said the matter was for its defence ministry and accused Warsaw of spreading "myths" to escalate the conflict in Ukraine, offering to hold consultations with Polish counterparts.
The Zapad drills are expected to include planning for use of the Oreshnik missile system, a Russian intermediate-range system described by military analysts as nuclear-capable. Analysts note the system is costly and of limited utility against dispersed forces in Ukraine but poses a greater threat to compact targets such as air bases — assets likely to be priorities in any high-intensity confrontation with NATO.
Western states have staged their own exercises in the region this month. Poland and NATO allies launched Iron-Defender-25 earlier in September, a series of land, air and sea exercises involving some 30,000 troops that Warsaw described as a response to Zapad and a test of the ability to deter and defend Polish territory. Poland’s Armed Forces General Command said those exercises began Sept. 1, a day after Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization drills commenced in Belarus.
Analysts said one indicator to watch during Zapad will be drone activity. An absence or reduction of drone operations could signal limitations in personnel and equipment for Russia after more than three years of large-scale war in Ukraine. Conversely, extensive drone use — coupled with electronic warfare and missile rehearsals — could demonstrate operational capabilities that NATO will scrutinize closely.
The U.N. Security Council meeting requested by Poland is scheduled to consider the reported incursion. Warsaw’s request and NATO’s consultations under Article 4 open diplomatic channels that could lead to broader allied responses depending on what Warsaw and alliance intelligence conclude about the origin and intent of the drone activity.
As Zapad 2025 proceeds through Sept. 16, Western officials and analysts said they would be watching troop numbers, movements into Belarus, the employment of long-range and intermediate-range systems, and any signs that forces remain in place after the exercises conclude. Those indicators will help determine whether the drills are confined to training or part of a broader strategic posture with potential implications for regional security.