Ethiopia's Tigray Region on Edge as Fighting Flares

Fighting has erupted in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region between regional forces and the national army, sparking fears among residents of a return to the brutal two-year war that concluded in 2022. Disruptions to internet and call services have further heightened anxiety, impacting citizens' ability to access funds in a largely cashless society where ATMs have been non-operational for months.

Escalating Tensions

The current clashes follow over six months of deteriorating relations between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party of Tigray. Despite the African Union-brokered Pretoria Agreement that ended the war, several unresolved issues have fueled renewed tensions. Both sides are trading blame for the latest escalation, which began this week with major clashes spreading into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. The TPLF claims it was reacting to federal offensives, including drone strikes, while the government asserts that Tigrayan forces initiated the conflict by seizing airports within Tigray.

Historical Context

The TPLF has historically been a dominant political force in Ethiopia, emerging as an armed movement in the 1970s and playing a key role in the overthrow of the military government in 1991. It led the ruling coalition for nearly three decades until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. His formation of the Prosperity Party significantly reduced the TPLF's influence, leading to a rapid deterioration of relations and the eruption of the devastating war in 2020. The conflict, one of the deadliest of the 21st century, resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths and pushed Tigray to the brink of famine before an uneasy truce was established in November 2022.

Stumbling Blocks in Peace

The peace deal faces significant hurdles, particularly concerning the fertile region of western Tigray. This territory, lost by the TPLF early in the war to Amhara forces, is claimed by many in the Amhara region who argue it should not have been part of Tigray. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tigrayans who fled the area are now living in displacement camps. The TPLF demands the return of western Tigray and the repatriation of displaced residents, while the government advocates for a referendum to decide its future.

Disarmament remains a contentious issue, with the government accusing the TPLF of holding back weapons. Disputes also persist over Tigray's governance. Attempts by Prime Minister Abiy to influence the TPLF-appointed interim administration led to internal TPLF disputes, culminating in the restoration of its pre-war administration before the May general election, which was not held in Tigray due to security concerns. This has disrupted public services and worsened economic conditions.

Shifting Alliances

The TPLF has forged new alliances, notably joining six other armed movements in the Alliance for Survival. This group includes factions like the Amhara's Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army, all sharing the objective of challenging Abiy's government, despite differing grievances. Officials from the TPLF state a desire to avoid the isolation experienced in 2020.

Government Stance and External Factors

The Ethiopian government accuses the TPLF of initiating the recent fighting and criticizes the new alliance as an attempt to destabilize the nation. It has also implicated Eritrea in supporting Ethiopian armed groups, an accusation Asmara denies. Disagreements between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly over access to Red Sea ports, have resurfaced. Prime Minister Abiy's push for control of Eritrea's Assab port has heightened regional tensions.

Reports indicate federal forces are employing drones and other military operations against Tigrayan forces, justified by the government as a response to attacks. However, the specifics of these strikes are difficult to verify independently. Residents in one town reported that drones hit schools allegedly used as military bases by Ethiopian troops during the prior conflict, suggesting a belief that Tigrayan forces are repurposing them.

Efforts to De-escalate

The African Union is leading diplomatic efforts, urging an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to dialogue, with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo engaging the parties. The UN and the regional body Igad have echoed these calls, warning against further conflict.

Risk of Wider Conflict

There is a significant risk that the fighting could spread. Clashes have already extended to Tigray's borders, and the government is concurrently managing armed conflicts in Amhara and Oromia. The new alliance could politically and militarily connect these disparate conflicts. There is also concern that Eritrea could be drawn into the conflict against the government. The involvement of major actors from Sudan's civil war on opposing sides in Tigray further complicates the situation. The AU has urged neighboring countries to avoid actions that could exacerbate the crisis.